Michael Peichl

Computational Hydrosystems (CHS) /

Climate Office for Central Germany

Helmholtz Centre
for Environmental Research − UFZ
Permoserstr. 15
04318 Leipzig, Germany

phone: ++49 - 341 - 235 4663
fax: ++49 - 341 - 235 45 4663

michael.peichl@ufz.de

Areas of Expertise and Research

I am currently working on modeling the impacts of extreme environmental conditions on society. In doing so, I consider both short-term projections as well as developments that will be further exacerbated by climate change. To this end, I am developing damage functions that can be used to derive and quantify the impacts of climate change on society from climate projections of hydrological and meteorological data. The identification of particularly relevant and harmful damaging drivers plays an important role in this process.

Currently, I focus on the agricultural sector, but the models can be applied to other sectors as well. My particular focus is on statistical methods that are easily transferable. I use econometric methods and machine learning. My research focuses on the limitations of currently used methods, the resulting uncertainty, and how to arrive at socially and economically relevant results.

I also have experience interacting with relevant stakeholders and conducting demand analysis for decision support systems such as mobile applications.

Projects

Since November 2020: Helmholtz-Climate-Initative https://www.helmholtz-klima.de/en

October 2017 - September 2020: ClimAlert

February 2012 - June 2017: Integrated Project Water Scarcity

Short CV

Education

Work Experience

05/2012 – 01/2013

Research Assistant, Institute for Environmental Science, University of Koblenz – Landau, Landau

02/2012 – 04/2012

Internship, Department Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Centre, MunichRe

08/2007 – 05/2009

& 07/2011 - 02/2012

Student Research Assistant, Research Area Environmental

Education

10/2006 – 12/2011

Diploma in Economics, Ruprecht-Karls-University Heidelberg, Focus: Environmental Economics, Diploma thesis: “The valuation of storms using different measurement techniques – A comparison of the life satisfaction approach and hedonic pricing”

9/2009 – 09/2010

Exchange Student, Graduate School, University of Oregon, Focus: Environmental Studies and Econometrics

10/2005 – 09/2006

University of Mannheim

Teaching

WS 2012/2013

Tutorial: Sustainability and Development Economics
Seminar: Socio-economic Aspects of Sustainability
Tutorial: Economic Valuation, Cost-Benefit and Risk Analysis
Seminar: Special Topics in Environmental and Resource Economics

SS 2012

Seminar: Ecological Economics
Tutorial: Models in Environmental and Ecological Economics
Seminar: Principals in Environmental Policy
Seminar: Environmental Management 1

Publications

Peichl, M., Thober, Samaniego, L., Hansjürgens, B., Marx, A.: Climate impacts on long-term silage maize yield in Germany. Scientific Reports 9, 7674, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-44126-1, 2019.

Peichl, M., Thober, S., Meyer, V., and Samaniego, L.: The effect of soil moisture anomalies on maize yield in Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 889-906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-889-2018, 2018.

Presentations

Talks

Peichl M., Thober S., Samaniego L., Kumar R., Rakovec O., Marx A. (2020): Landwirtschaftliche Ertragsabschätzungen für 1.5° , 2° und 3° Celsius globale Erwärmung. Dürren in Mitteldeutschland – Auswirkungen, Herausforderungen, Anpassungsoptionen

Peichl, M., Thober, S., Marx, A.(2019): Impacts on winter wheat yield in Germany at 1.5°, 2º, and 3° global warming. European Climate Changes Adaptaion conference (ECCA), Lisbon.

Peichl, M. (2018): Economic Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yield. Economics Research Colloquium, Martin-Luther University Halle-Wittenberg

Peichl, M., Thober, S., Schwarze, R., Meyer, V., Samaniego, L., (2016): Soil Moisture Anomaly as Predictor of Crop Yield Deviation in Germany. European Geoscienses Union General Assembly (EGU) Vienna, Austria.

Posters

Peichl M., Thober S., Samaniego L., Kumar R., Rakovec O., Marx A. (2019): Impacts on winter wheat yield in Germany at 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming, American Geoscience Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco

Peichl, M., Thober, S., Meyer, V., Samaniego, L., (2017): The Effect of Soil Moisture Anomalies on Maize Yield in Germany, Econometric Models of Climate Change at Nuffieleld College, University of Oxford, UK.

Peichl, M., Meyer, V., Thober, S., Samaniego, L., Schwarze, R, (2015): Soil Moisture Anomaly as Predictor of Crop Yield Deviation in Germany. Higrade-Conference, UFZ, Leipzig, Germany.

Peichl, M., Meyer, V., Thober, S., Samaniego, L. (2015): Soil Moisture as an Estimator of Crop Yield in Germany. European Geoscienses Union General Assembly (EGU) Vienna, Austria.

Peichl, M. (2013): The Economic Assessment of Water Scarcity - Direct costs in the agricultural sector of Germany. REKLIM Workshop 2014, Bad Salzschlirff, Germany.

Contact

Head
Prof. Dr. Sabine Attinger
Department of Computational Hydrosystems
tbl-modmon@ufz.de

Deputy Head
Prof. Dr. Luis Samaniego
Department of Computational Hydrosystems
luis.samaniego@ufz.de

Assistance
Nora Pabst
Phone +49 341 6025-2367

Sindy Bleiholder
Phone +49 341 6025-1250

Susanne Gangloff
Phone +49 341 6025-2533

sekces@ufz.de

Permoserstraße 15 | 04318 Leipzig

News / Press

May 2024

New research published in Nature Communications by Hussian et al., (2024) emphasizes the game-changing potential of near-real-time and impact-based flood prediction. Their study demonstrates a 10-meter floodplain inundation hindcast of the 2021 European Summer Flood, showcasing a 17-hour lead time for better disaster preparedness. Impact-based early warnings can empower local authorities with crucial data on citizens at-risk for targeted emergency responses.

July 30, 2023

Hitze und Dürre - Interview with climate researcher Jakob Zscheischler
in Deutschlandfunk (only in German, 10:50 min) Link to interview

May 16, 2023

Start of ESA funded project 4DHydro

The overarching objective of 4DHydro is to foster collaborations between the Earth Observation (EO) water cycle community developing novel high-resolution EO data products, and the land surface and hydrological modelling community (LSM/HM) engaged in advancing hyperresolution modelling of the hydrological cycle at regional and continental scales. By involving several European institutions 4DHydro will assess and improve data sets of EO as well as synchronize EO products and LSM/HM models in order to improve predictions of the hydrological system. Overall, it will assist end-users and decisions-makers as well as the EU Destination Earth initiative. The project’s kick-off meeting will take place in Leipzig on 21st of June 2023.

Jan 30, 2023

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The following paper received the ASCE-EWRI 2023 Award for Best Case Study in the Journal of Hydrologic Engineering.

Mai, J. , B. A. Tolson, H. Shen, É. Gaborit, V. Fortin, N. Gasset, H. Awoye, T. A. Stadnyk, L. M. Fry, E. A. Bradley, F. Seglenieks, A. G. Temgoua, D. G. Princz, S. Gharari, A. Haghnegahdar, M. E. Elshamy, S. Razavi, M. Gauch, J. Lin, X. Ni, Y. Yuan, M. McLeod, N. B. Basu, R. Kumar, O. Rakovec, L. Samaniego, S. Attinger, N. K. Shrestha, P. Daggupati, T. Roy, S. Wi, T. Hunter, J. R. Craig, and A. Pietroniro (2021):
The Great Lakes Runoff Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Lake Erie (GRIP-E)
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 26(9), 05021020. Accepted Feb 16, 2021.

https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/%28ASCE%29HE.1943-5584.0002097

Dec 1, 2022

Award Poster Masooma Batool

Masooma Batool won the "Best student poster award" at the XXI International Nitrogen Workshop.
This conference, hosted by ETSIAAB, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, brought together nearly 300 papers from authors from 40 countries in Madrid, Spain, October 24-28, 2022.
At the conference, Masooma and her colleagues presented long-term trends in soil nitrogen (N) surplus across Europe (1850-2019). Excess N provides information on the trends and spatial distribution of N surplus in soil systems across Europe, highlighting agricultural areas in Central Europe as nitrogen hotspots. These areas have undergone dramatic changes over the past 150 years. Importantly, we show that estimates of N surplus are subject to large uncertainties, requiring explicit consideration of these uncertainties when analyzing past trends in N surplus.

Nov 15, 2022

Earthrise - Mission Klima
How our research contributes to climate mitigation and adaptation is demonstrated in this WELT report.

Video at www.welt.de (only in German)

05:50': Hohes Holz research station
10:40': FORMIND in the Vislab
15:45': Fragmentation of forests
43:00': FORMIND and climate scenarios

Oct 12, 2022

Dr. Husain Najafi won the UFZ Young Scientist Award for Applied Research 2022. The award goes to him for his excellence and dedication in development of the operational drought forecasting system in Germany and investigation of 2021 summer flood predictability. Hydrological forecasting systems are the fundamental component of early warning systems - disaster risk reduction.

Older news are stored in the news archive.

New publications

Najafi, H., Shrestha, P.K., Rakovec, O. et al. High-resolution impact-based early warning system for riverine flooding. Nat Commun 15, 3726 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48065-y
Henniger, H., Huth, A., Frank, K., & Bohn, F. J. (2023). Creating virtual forests around the globe and analysing their state space. Ecological Modelling, 483, 110404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110404

In this paper we present the "Forest Factory 2.0″ algorithm, which generates various virtual forest stands for different biomes on Earth. To demonstrate the potential of this approach, we analyse different forest-structure->ecosystem-function relationships across biomes.
Friedrich Boeing, Oldrich Rakovec, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, Martin Schrön, Anke Hildebrandt, Corinna Rebmann, Stephan Thober, Sebastian Müller, Steffen Zacharias, Heye Bogena, Katrin Schneider, Ralf Kiese, Sabine Attinger, and Andreas Marx. High-resolution drought simulations and comparison to soil moisture observations in Germany. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5137–5161, 2022. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022

In this paper, we deliver an evaluation of the second generation operational German drought monitor ( https://www.ufz.de/duerremonitor ) with a state-of-the-art compilation of observed soil moisture data from 40 locations and four different measurement methods in Germany. We show that the expressed stakeholder needs for higher resolution drought information at the one-kilometer scale can be met and that the agreement of simulated and observed soil moisture dynamics can be moderately improved.
Mahnken, M., Cailleret, M., Collalti, A., Trotta, C., Biondo, C., D’Andrea, E., ... & Reyer, C. P. O. (2022). Accuracy, realism and general applicability of European forest models. Global Change Biology. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16384
Pacheco-Labrador, J., Weber, U., Ma, X., Mahecha, M. D., Carvalhais, N., Wirth, C., Huth, A., Bohn, F. J., Kraemer, G., Heiden, U., FunDivEUROPE members, and Migliavacca, M.: EVALUATING THE POTENTIAL OF DESIS TO INFER PLANT TAXONOMICAL AND FUNCTIONAL DIVERSITIES IN EUROPEAN FORESTS, Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVI-1/W1-2021, 49–55, 2022. DOI: 10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVI-1-W1-2021-49-2022
Bevacqua, E., De Michele, C., Manning, C., Couasnon, A., Ribeiro, A.F.S., Ramos, A.M., Vignotto, E., Bastos, A., Blesić, S., Durante, F., Hillier, J., Oliveira, S.C., Pinto, J.G., Ragno, E., Rivoire, P., Saunders, K., van der Wiel, K., Wu, W., Zhang, T., Zscheischler, J. (2021): Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events. Earth Future. 10.1029/2021EF002340
Najafi H, Robertson AW, Massah Bavani AR, Irannejad P, Wanders N, Wood EF. Improved multi-model ensemble forecasts of Iran's precipitation and temperature using a hybrid dynamical-statistical approach during fall and winter seasons. Int
J Climatol. 2021;1–28. DOI: 10.1002/joc.7148

Hari, V., Rakovec, O., Markonis, Y. et al. Increased future occurrences of the exceptional 2018–2019 Central European drought under global warming. Sci Rep 10, 12207 (2020). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-68872-9

Schmidt, L., Heße, F., Attinger, S., Kumar, R., (2020): "Challenges in applying machine learning models for hydrological inference: A case study for flooding events across Germany", Water Resources Research DOI: 10.1029/2019WR025924

Jing, M., Kumar, R., Heße, F., Thober, S., Rakovec, O., Samaniego, L., Attinger, S., (2020): "Assessing the response of groundwater quantity and travel time distribution to 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming in a mesoscale central German basin", Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-1511-2020

Sep 2, 2022

The collaborative project "Standardisiertes Monitoring von Wachstumsreaktionen wichtiger Waldbaumarten auf klimatische Extremereignisse" (MW³) with participation of the UFZ will develop a standardized monitoring system and protocol to record growth responses of important Central European forest tree species with a focus on climatic extremes. Future extreme events and their impact on forest carbon fluxes in Germany will be analyzed using smart models.