Project description:

In order to ensure consistency, developing energy systems at both national and European levels requires efficient coordination and alignment between energy transition plans. The overall aim of the Man0EUvRE project is to boost and coordinate energy system modeling across Europe and provide open scientific evidence and research-based results that facilitate ambitious emissions reductions for a Clean Energy Transition (CET) while taking into account the measures proposed in REPowerEU, the Fit for 55 package and the Net Zero Industrial act. To this end, the Man0EUvRE project assembles Europe's leading modeling research teams in a joint effort to reinforce an accelerated decrease in fossil fuel import dependency in the context of REPowerEU while aiming for emissions reductions in line with the Fit for 55 targets and the net-zero goal by 2050.

Based on the existing open Clean Energy scenario for 2050 from the openENTRANCE project, an adjustment will be made to include the REPowerEU plan and subsequently analyzed for the European energy system. The objective of the pan-European study will be the creation of robust pathways for the European energy system, focusing on the fulfillment of climate targets towards net-zero, taking current policy packages into account (including REPowerEU and Fit for 55). These European pathways can inform national decision models and decision-makers about the international implications of current and future policies. Hence, this top-down output will be a framework for the bottom-up analyses in nine case studies concentrating on specific regions, topics, or sectors. The developed scenario in the pan-European study will be used in the case studies, whose results will be compared to the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) of the respective countries. These case studies aim to contribute novel insights into the viability of pan-European pathways, offer feedback and recommendations for the NECP, explore opportunities for transnational collaboration, and provide valuable modeling perspectives at both the pan-European and national scales. Through analysis, specific components of each case study will be identified for potential adaptation to other countries and incorporated into a methodology for NECP iterations. Based on this qualitative and quantitative comparison, an adjusted set of NECPs for the respective countries, along with adjusted capacities for the energy sectors and geographical areas used in the case studies, will be fed back to the European data scenario set. The regional results will be used to conduct a second pan-European study of the adjusted Clean Energy scenario for 2050, including the updated NECPs and capacities.

By conducting a comparative assessment of the two pan-European scenarios, valuable insights can be gained regarding the economic implications, impacts, and consequences of national energy and climate plans in contrast to a pan-European plan. These insights will aid in devising effective strategies to manage and support the EU's journey towards achieving climate neutrality. By iterating over the model results using the inputs from the case study models, the European model can be further refined to take national perspectives and priorities into account and converge to a common optimum for the EU transition to net-zero. To represent the geographical spread in the European dataset, the case studies cover a large area that includes local concerns from each national plan with more details, cooperating with local authorities and policymakers, and allowing for a replication of the NECP process, which is done at the national level. Each case study is centered in one country or region, and the surrounding area is normally included, though less detailed. The challenges presented in the case studies constitute a representative set of challenges faced in energy system modeling.

Funded Employees:

1. Sandra Gutjahr
   
2. Dr. Ali Forootani