FarmECS: EcoEpi's cattle disease modelling framework
We have developed an innovative modelling framework to address the evaluation of national control/surveillance programmes planned in line with the AHL for livestock diseases. Our modelling framework is applied to the cattle sector of Ireland and the German federal state Saxony Anhalt where there is a need for policy support in the context of BoHV-1 eradication and BVD surveillance.
The framework targets a large-scale individual-based model called FarmECS in which each animal is explicitly represented with its biological characteristics and each farm with its management-specific characteristics. A detailed understanding of herd management and herd types is essential for animal disease control and surveillance activities, to inform epidemiological study design and interpretation, and to guide effective policy decision-making under the light of the AHL. Therefore, region-specific herd types are defined in the model, representing the typical management schemes of the cattle sector in the modelled region. A rule-based management system for each of the defined herd types is implemented, which is followed by all herds of the respective type.This management system determines, for example, how long herds of a certain type keep youngstock, at what age they sell them and whether herds maintain themselves through breeding.
In the modelling framework epidemiological processes (infection, reactivation etc.) are modelled independently of the management practices of a herd, which allows to change the pathogen to be modelled. This has made it possible to extract model variants from our general framework that are tailored to specific problems. E.g. an IBR variant of the model (FarmECS-IBR) is currently used to estimate the costs of a national BoHV-1 eradication programme in Ireland. Another variant of the model (FarmECS-BVD) is applied to test the efficacy of various BVD surveillance options.
The development of the modelling framework builds on a previous collaboration between Ireland and Germany and is highly collaborative with substancial input from the following project partners:
- Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis (CVERA), IE
- Animal Health Ireland (AHI), IE
- Tierseuchenkasse Sachsen-Anhalt, DE
- Landesamt für Verbraucherschutz Sachsen-Anhalt, DE
Selected Publications
- Thulke, H.-H., Lange, M., Tratalos, J.A., Clegg, T.A., McGrath, G., O’Grady, L., O’Sullivan, P., Doherty, M.L., Graham, D.A., More, S.J. (2018):
Eradicating BVD, reviewing Irish programme data and model predictions to support prospective decision making
Prev. Vet. Med. 150 , 151 - 161 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.11.017 - Brock, J., Lange, M., Guelbenzu-Gonzalo, M., Meunier, N., Vaz, A.M., Tratalos, J.A., Dittrich, P., Gunn, M., More, S.J., Graham, D., Thulke, H.-H. (2020):
Epidemiology of age-dependent prevalence of Bovine Herpes Virus Type 1 (BoHV-1) in dairy herds with and without vaccination
Vet. Res. 51 , art. 124 10.1186/s13567-020-00842-5 - Brock, J., Lange, M., More, S.J., Graham, D., Thulke, H.-H. (2020):
Reviewing age-structured epidemiological models of cattle diseases tailored to support management decisions: Guidance for the future
Prev. Vet. Med. 174 , art. 104814 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2019.104814 - Brock, J., Lange, M., Tratalos, J.A., More, S.J., Graham, D.A., Guelbenzu-Gonzalo, M., Thulke, H.-H. (2021):
Combining expert knowledge and machine-learning to classify herd types in livestock systems
Sci. Rep. 11 , art. 2989 10.1038/s41598-021-82373-3 - Brock, J., Lange, M., Tratalos, J.A., More, S.J., Guelbenzu-Gonzalo, M., Graham, D.A., Thulke, H.-H. (2021):
A large-scale epidemiological model of BoHV-1 spread in the Irish cattle population to support decision-making in conformity with the European Animal Health Law
Prev. Vet. Med. 192 , art. 105375 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2021.105375 - Koch, A., Lange, M., Ewert, B., Linder, M., House, R., Albrecht, K., Thulke, H.-H. (2021):
Beurteilung alternativer Überwachungsansätze zum Erhalt der Freiheit von BVD in regionalen Rinderpopulationen - Ergebnisse eines Computermodells. Evaluation of alternative surveillance strategies for the maintenance of the status free from BVD in local bovine populations - Results of a computer simulation
Amtstierärztlicher Dienst und Lebensmittelkontrolle 28 (4), 1 - 8 - Brock, J., Lange, M., Tratalos, J.A., Meunier, N., Guelbenzu-Gonzalo, M., More, S.J., Thulke, H.-H., Graham, D.A. (2022):
The Irish cattle population structured by enterprise type: overview, trade & trends
Irish Vet. J. 75 , art. 6 10.1186/s13620-022-00212-x