Prof. Dr. Birgit Müller
Contact
Head of Working Group POLISES (POLicy Instruments and Socio-Environmental Systems under global change)
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ
Department of Ecological Modelling
Permoserstr. 15
04318 Leipzig
Germany
Building 1, room 2.04
Tel.: +49 341 235-1708
Fax: +49 341 235-3500
birgit.mueller@ufz.de

Research Interests
Use of process-based models for an enhanced understanding and governance of social-ecological systems under global change:
- Exploring dynamics of socio-environmental resource systems under uncertainty
- Effects of policy instruments for global food security and for coping with climate risk (such as weather insurances) on socio-environmental systems (SES)
- Adequate representation of human decisions in agent-based models for natural resource use Journal Club
- Advancement of methods related to incorporate cross-scale effects in land use models
- Potential of SES models as tool of thinking and tool for communication in inter- and transdisciplinary research
Current Projects
- POLISES - Global food security policies and
their social-ecological side effects in regions prone to global change
Project Website POLISES - INSURANCEGRASS -Assessment of formal, natural and social insurances: how to cope best with impacts of extreme events on grasslands for sustainable farming systems? (D-A-CH Program, April 2022 – March 2025).
- BESTMAP - Behavioural, Ecological and Socio-economic Tools for Modelling Agricultural Policy (September 2019 - August 2023).
- NamTip - Understanding and Managing Desertification Tipping Points in Dryland Social-Ecological Systems – A Namibian Perspective (March 2019 - February 2022).
- SESYNC Pursuit: Testing and extending Ostrom’s frameworks: quantitative synthesis and modeling of social-ecological dynamics (2017- ongoing)
Finished Projects
- DFG funded Project SEEMI - "Effects of microinsurance on informal safety nets and on strategies for natural resource use – a model-based analysis" (March 2017 - August 2020)
- Junior Research Group POLISES - Global food security policies and their social-ecological side effects in regions prone to global change (2014-2019) Short description
Project Website POLISES - Collaborative SESYNC-UFZ-IDiv project: Synthesis of micro-scale human decision making to mitigate risks to ecosystem services
- Sustainability of (Post-)Nomadic Resource Utilization Under Global Change - Conceptual Understanding Through Ecological-Economic Modelling (2008-2012)
- Ecological Economics: Modelling and conceptual foundation, with an example of grazing in semi-arid regions (2004-2007)
Memberships
- Member of external advisory board of the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Centre (SESYNC) Annapolis, US (since 2018)
- Member of Editorial Board of open-access journal SESMO – Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling (since 2019)
- Member of Steering Committee of Global Land Program Working Group: “Large-scale Behavioural Models of Land Use Change”
Publications
Latest Publications:
Typologies of European farmers: approaches, methods and research gaps
Reg. Envir. Chang. 22 (2), art. 43
full text (doi)
Using Bayesian belief networks to investigate farmer behavior and policy interventions for improved nitrogen management
Environ. Manage. 69 (6), 1153 - 1166
full text (doi)
Integrating equity considerations into agent-based modeling: A conceptual framework and practical guidance
JASSS 25 (3), art. 1
full text (doi)
Agricultural insurance through the lens of rural household dietary diversity
Glob. Food Secur. 28 , art. 100485
full text (doi)
Linking model design and application for transdisciplinary approaches in social-ecological systems
Glob. Environ. Change 66 , art. 102201
full text (doi)
Improving the design of climate insurance: combining empirical approaches and modelling
Clim. Dev.
full text (doi)
How to make socio‐environmental modelling more useful to support policy and management?
People Nat. 3 (3), 560 - 572
full text (doi)
Informal risk-sharing between smallholders may be threatened by formal insurance: Lessons from a stylized agent-based model
PLOS One 16 (3), e0248757
full text (doi)
Ecological and financial strategies provide complementary benefits for smallholder climate resilience: insights from a simulation model
Ecol. Soc. 26 (2), art. 14
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Aligning agent-based modeling with multi-objective land-ese allocation: Identification of policy gaps and feasible pathways to biophysically optimal landscapes
Front. Environ. Sci. 8 , art. 103
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Advancing understanding of natural resource governance: a post-Ostrom research agenda
Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 44 , 26 - 34
full text (doi)
Modelling food security: Bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale
Glob. Environ. Change 63 , art. 102085
full text (doi)
Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem services provision in a degraded ecosystem: A systematic assessment in the Lake Urmia basin, Iran
Sci. Total Environ. 716 , art. 137100
full text (doi)
Formalising theories of human decision-making for agent-based modelling of social-ecological systems: practical lessons learned and ways forward
Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling 2 , art. 16340
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Resilience trinity: safeguarding ecosystem functioning and services across three different time horizons and decision contexts
Oikos 129 (4), 445 - 456
full text (doi)
Combining social network analysis and agent-based modelling to explore dynamics of human interaction: A review
Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling 2 , art. 16325
full text (doi)
BESTMAP: behavioural, Ecological and Socio-economic Tools for Modelling Agricultural Policy
Research Ideas and Outcomes 6 , e52052
full text (doi)
Full list of publications: Publications