How to model it: Ecological models, in particular simulation
models, often seem to be formulated ad hoc and only poorly analysed. I am
therefore interested in strategies and methods for making ecological modelling
more coherent and efficient. The ultimate aim is to develop preditive models
that provide mechanstic understanding of ecological systems and that are
transparent and structurally realistic enough to support environmental
decision making.
Pattern-oriented modelling: This is a general strategy of using
multiple patterns observed in real systems as multiple criteria for chosing
model structure, selecting among alternative submodels, and inversely
determining entire sets of unknown model parameters.
Individual-based and agent-based modelling: For many, if not most,
ecological questions individual-level aspects can be decisive for explaining
system-level behavior. IBM/ABMs allow to represent individual heterogeneity,
local interactions, and/or adaptive behaviour
Ecological theory and concepts: I am particularly interested in
exploring stability properties like resilience and persistence.
Modelling for ecological applications: Pattern-oriented modelling
allows to develop structurally realistic models, which can be used to support
decision making and the management of biodiversity and natural resources.
Currently, I am involved in the EU project CREAM, where a suite of population
models is developed for pesticide risk assessment.
Standards for model communication and formulation: In 2006, we published
a general protocol for describing individual- and agent-based models, called the
ODD protocol (Overview, Design concepts, details). ODD turned out to be more useful
(and needed) than we expected. An update of the protocol and its
description appeared 2010(for further details, see
ODD website).
Projects
Special Issue in Ecological Modelling Uta Berger (TU Dresden) and I are editing a Special Issue
in the journal "Ecological Modelling" which is dedicated to the 70th birthday of Donald DeAngelis. The title of the
special issue is: "Next generation ecological modelling, concepts, and theory: structural realism, emergence,
and predictions". Contributions can be suggested until July 31, 2014. For further information, see:
Special Issue.
ABM Textbook:
Steve Railsback from Humboldt State University, California, and I wrote a
textbook on individual-/agent- based modelling which is based on the software
platform NetLogo. The book is for undergraduate and graduate students (and
their instructors) from any discipline where agentbased models are used. For further information, see:
ABM textbook website.
Honey bees
The aim of the project was to explore and make predictions about the relative importance of,
and interactions between, the multitude of factors that affect honeybee colony strength and
survival in arable landscapes. The project was carried out at Rothamsted Research, UK; project
leader is Juliet Osborne (now: University of Exeter). The resulting model is available here:
BEEHAVE.
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Honey beesThe aim of the project was to explore and make predictions about the relative importance of, and interactions between, the multitude of factors that affect honeybee colony strength and survival in arable landscapes. The project was carried out at Rothamsted Research, UK; project leader is Juliet Osborne (now: University of Exeter). The resulting model is available here: BEEHAVE.