Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Journals |
| DOI | 10.1007/s00704-025-05551-7 |
| Document | Shareable Link |
| Title (Primary) | Global risks of Ctenarytaina eucalypti to eucalyptus plantations under climate change: broad or limited? |
| Author | das Graças do Carmo, D.; de Freitas, D.R.; da Silva Sant’Ana, L.C.; dos Reis, D.M.; Queiroz Lopes, P.H.; Lima, E.; Siqueira da Silva, R.; Coutinho Picanço, M. |
| Source Titel | Theoretical and Applied Climatology |
| Year | 2025 |
| Department | OESA |
| Volume | 156 |
| Issue | 6 |
| Page From | art. 321 |
| Language | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Supplements | https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1007%2Fs00704-025-05551-7/MediaObjects/704_2025_5551_MOESM1_ESM.xlsx |
| Keywords | Blue gum psyllid; Ecological niche model; Climate scenarios; Machine learning; MaxEnt |
| Abstract | The blue gum psyllid Ctenarytaina eucalypti (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) is a major pest of eucalyptus where it occurs and can cause losses of up to 30%. Predicting current and future habitats for pests is important in planning management programs and quarantine actions. MaxEnt is the main software used to determine the global spatial distribution of species. Thus, this study aimed to determine current and future global areas with climate change that are suitable for C. eucalypti using MaxEnt. The model had as predictors the precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio 19), mean temperature of coldest quarter (Bio 11), isothermality (Bio 3), temperature annual range (Bio 7) and precipitation of driest month (Bio 14). It had the features class linear, quadratic and Hinge, regularization multiplier of one and area under the curve of 0.988. C. eucalypti poses a risk of causing damage to specific areas of the planet (0.30 to 0.57% of the world). These areas are located in the Americas, Europe, Africa, Asia and Oceania and are expected to increase in the future, especially in a pessimistic climate change scenario. In conclusion, C. eucalypti poses a risk of causing damage to eucalyptus plantations in restricted areas of the planet. |
| Persistent UFZ Identifier | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=30846 |
| das Graças do Carmo, D., de Freitas, D.R., da Silva Sant’Ana, L.C., dos Reis, D.M., Queiroz Lopes, P.H., Lima, E., Siqueira da Silva, R., Coutinho Picanço, M. (2025): Global risks of Ctenarytaina eucalypti to eucalyptus plantations under climate change: broad or limited? Theor. Appl. Climatol. 156 (6), art. 321 10.1007/s00704-025-05551-7 |
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