Biodiversity underpins our life support system and provides of stable and healthy food: Here we suggest how integrated assessment models should take this into account to provide balanced assessment of food provisioning. By unpacking the link between ecosystem service and biodiversity research for managing agricultural landscapes we suggest how performance of agriculture production should be measure, using Green Total Factor Productivity.
Deciphering interwoven drivers of environment-related migration–A multisite case study from the Ethiopian highlands.
Groth, J., Ide, T., Sakdapolrak, P., Kassa, E., & Hermans, K., (2020). Global Environmental Change, 63, 102094.
Environment-related migration is a process driven by multiple drivers at different scales and little is known about which contextual factors are most relevant and how they interact. In this paper we shed light on this issue by conducting an in-depth qualitative, yet multisite and medium-N study of farming households in the northern Ethiopian highlands. We utilized qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) – a novel approach in the research field – to decipher interwoven micro- and mesolevel migration drivers. Our findings reveal that migrant networks in combination with migration abilities, rather than commonly cited push factors, are far more important drivers of environment-related migration at the household level.
Aligning agent-based modelling with multi-objective land-use allocation: Identification of policy gaps and feasible pathways to biophysically optimal landscapes.
Bartkowski, B., Beckmann, M., Drechsler, M., Kaim, A., Liebelt, V., Müller, B., Witing, F. & Strauch, M., (2020). Frontiers in Environmental Science, 8, 103.
The paper is a result of the POF3 core project ALABAMA (ALigning Agent-BAsed Modeling With Multi-Objective Land-Use Allocation). Here, scientists from different departments (CLE/OESA/OEKON) developed an approach to explore the feasibility of biophysically optimal landscapes and the relevance of policies tailored to environmental and socio-economic objectives. The approach was successfully tested for a virtual watershed. The next step needs to be a real-world application, perhaps within POF4.
Assumptions in ecosystem service assessments: Increasing transparency for conservation.
Schröter, M., Crouzat, E., Hölting, L., Massenberg, J., Rode, J., Hanisch, M., Kabisch, N., Palliwoda, J., Priess, J.A., Seppelt, R. & Beckmann, M., (2020). Ambio.
Ecosystem service assessments depend on complex multi-disciplinary methods and rely on a number of assumptions which reduce complexity. We synthesised 12 prevalent types of assumptions in ecosystem service assessments that include assumptions on data collection, mapping, on socio-economic valuation and about using assessment results for decision-making. We recommend future assessments to increase transparency about assumptions, and to test and validate them and their potential consequences on assessment reliability.
How do the green components of urban green infrastructure influence the use of ecosystem services? Examples from Leipzig, Germany.
Palliwoda J, E Banzhaf, J Priess, (2020). Landscape Ecol.
Increasing urbaninzation leads to an increasing importance of high quality urban green infrastructure (UGI) providing ecosystem services. This study analyses the influence of tree cover and other green parameters like species richness on ecosystem service use in urban parks and green brownfields in the city of Leipzig. Results from the study highlight how vegetation or green structures of UGI can be employed to steer its use and therefore contribute to its resilient design and management.
Introducing APiC for regionalised land cover mapping on the national scale using Sentinel-2A imagery.
Sebastian Preidl, Maximilian Lange, Daniel Doktor, (2020).Remote Sensing of Environment, Volume 240, Article 111673.
APiC is a novel adaptable pixel-based compositing and classification approach specially designed for the use of high resolution spatio-temporal space-borne data. Overcoming the obstacle of frequent cloud coverage in optical remote sensing data is essential for monitoring dynamic land surface processes from space. For that reason, we developed a data-driven classification approach that uses multiple prediction models to dynamically account for cloud coverage at pixel level. APiC is therefore well suited to be applied in regions with different weather conditions, species composition and phenology. The capability of this method is demonstrated by mapping 19 land cover classes across Germany’s agricultural area for the year 2016 based on Sentinel-2A data. The overall accuracy is about 88%. In addition to land cover, APiC allows the mapping of corresponding model performance for each classified pixel.
Constraints in multi-objective optimization of land use allocation – repair or penalize?
Strauch, M., A.F. Cord, C. Pätzold, S. Lautenbach, A. Kaim, C. Schweitzer, R. Seppelt, M. Volk, (2019). Environmental Modelling & Software.
Combining simulation models and multi-objective optimization can help solving complex land use allocation problems by considering multiple, often competing demands on landscapes, such as agriculture, (drinking) water provision, or biodiversity conservation. The search for optimal land use allocations has to result in feasible solutions satisfying “real-world” constraints. We here introduce a generic and readily applicable tool to integrate user-specific spatial models (e.g. assessing different ecosystem services) for a Constrained Multi-objective Optimization of Land use Allocation (CoMOLA). The tool can handle basic land use conversion constraints by either a newly and specifically developed method to repair infeasible solutions or by penalizing constraint violation. CoMOLA was systematically tested for different levels of complexity using a virtual landscape and simple ecosystem service and biodiversity models. Our study shows that using repair mechanisms seems to be more effective in exploring the feasible solution space while penalizing constraint violation likely results in infeasible solutions. CoMOLA is a product of the POF III program: It has been successfully applied within our EU BiodivERsA project TALE to optimize the allocation of land use and agri-environmental measures (
Verhagen 2018 et al.) It is a core element of ongoing integrated research within IP12 (e.g. core project "Multi-objective agent-based land use allocation") and will also be applied in upcoming projects, such as OPTAIN (EU H2020).
Conventional land-use intensification reduces species richness and increases production: A global meta-analysis.
Beckmann, M. et al. (2019). Global Change Biology.
The exploitation of farmland is being intensified with a focus to raising yields. The degree to which yields actually increase as a result and the extent of the simultaneous loss of biological diversity have to date been under-researched factors. An international team of scientists led by the UFZ has now evaluated data from worldwide research in which both yield and biodiversity were examined before and after intensification measures.
of Ecosystem Services: Drivers, Risks, and Societal Responses.
Schröter, M., A. Bonn, S. Klotz, R. Seppelt, C. Baessler (eds., 2019). Springer, New York, 414 pages.
The “Atlas of Ecosystem Services“ contains 60 succinct chapters which deliver a comprehensive overview on the risks to sustained provision of ecosystem services. More than 260 authors, among them UFZ colleagues form 16 departments, have contributed to the book. Global and regional case studies shed light on the impacts of land use change, climate change and socio-economic drivers on ecosystem services, and their related (land use) conflicts. Furthermore, policy instruments and management options to address these risks are presented.
The art of scientific performance.
Seppelt, R., Beckmann, M., Václavík, T., Volk, M., (2018).Trends Ecol. Evol. 33 (11), 805 - 809.
Being not for quite some time in science in various roles as authors, reviewers, supervisors and project coordinators and recognizing a vast diversity of outlets on the so called "scientific crises“ we felt it is time for a perspective on that tipic entitle "The Art of Scientific Performance“.
Environmental change, adaptation strategies and the relevance of migration in Sub-Saharan drylands.
Charlotte Wiederkehr, Michael Beckmann, Kathleen Hermans, (2018). Environ. Res. Lett. 13 113003
In this paper, we systematically synthesise case study data on human adaptation behaviour in the context of environmental change covering more than 9,700 rural households in Sub-Saharan Africa. In particular, the role and relative significance of migration as an adaptation strategy is assessed. The results show that measures related to crop, livestock, soil and water management are the most common, but also indicate the relevance of different forms of migration which were reported by about 23% of the households under study.
Under-standing and assessing vegetation health by in situ species and remote-sensing approaches
Lausch, A., Bastian, O., Klotz, S., Leita o, P.J., Jung, A., Rocchini, D., Schaepman, M.E., Skidmore, A.K., Tischendorf, L., Knapp, S., (2018). Methods Ecol. Evol. 9 (8), 1799 - 1809.
We hereby provide an overview of in situ species approaches, that is, the biological, the phylogenetic, and the morphological species concept, as well as an overview of the remote-sensing spectral trait/spectral trait variations concept to monitor the status of vegetation health and diversity (VDH) as well as processes of stress, disturbances, and resource limitations affecting VHD. The approaches are compared with re-gard to their suitability for monitoring vegetation health and diversity, and their advantages, disadvantages, potential, and requirements for being linked are discussed.
A review of multi-criteria optimization techniques for agricultural land use allocation.
Kaim, A., Cord, A.F., Volk, M. (2018). Environ. Modell. Softw. 105, 79-93
The paper reviews optimization techniques for multi-criteria land use allocation problems with a focus on agricultural landscapes. The review also addresses constraint handling, stakeholder integration and trade-off analysis. Furthermore, a structured guideline for selecting appropriate optimization methods is proposed.
Revealing preferences for urban green spaces: a scale-sensitive hedonic pricing analysis for the city of Leipzig.
The value of urban green spaces (UGS) is recognized as an important issue for real estate developers as much as for urban planners, since UGS influence housing prices and the attractiveness of locations and neighborhoods. Decisions related to UGS are made on different spatial scales, which have not yet been distinguished in hedonic studies. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the scale dependency of UGS values based on revealed preferences. We propose to apply a stepwise scale-sensitive hedonic pricing analysis to residential rental units in Leipzig, Germany
Optimizing the allocation of agri-environment measures to navigate the trade-offs between ecosystem services, biodiversity and agricultural production .
Verhagen, W., van der Zanden, E.H., Strauch, M., van Teeffelen, A.J.A., Verburg, P.H., (2018). Environ. Sci. Policy 84 , 186 - 196
For the intensively-used Kromme Rijn area in the Netherlands, we optimized the allocation of agri-environment measures (linear elements, organic farming and set-aside) with regard to four objectives: (1) pasture production, (2) orchard production, (3) habitat suitability for the Great Crested Newt and (4) landscape aesthetics. The study illustrates trade-offs among the objectives but also reveals a remarkable potential for improving each of the different objectives at the same time and identifies priority areas for implementing agri-environment measures. This is the first application of
CoMOLA, a tool for Constrained Multi-objective Optimization of Land use Allocation developed at our department.
Towards systematic analyses of ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies: main concepts, methods and the road ahead.
Cord, A., B. Bartkowski, M. Beckmann, A. Dittrich, K. Hermans, A. Kaim, N. Lienhoop, K. Locher-Krause, J. Priess, C. Schröter-Schlaack, N. Schwarz, R. Seppelt, M. Strauch, T. Vaclavik & M. Volk (2017). Ecosystem Services.
This paper emerged from a series of monthly meetings (“Journal Club”, held between June 2015 and March 2016) among 15 colleagues from the departments CLE and OEKON and tells you most of the things that you might want to know about ecosystem services relationships. By synthesizing the growing body of literature on this topic, we identify four main study objectives of such analyses, describe the key concepts, including viewpoints of different disciplines, and highlight the major challenges that need to be addressed. To help guiding researchers towards more systematic analyses of ES trade-offs and synergies, we conclude with an outlook on suggested future research priorities.
Spatio-temporal change of ecosystem services as a key to understand natural resource utilization in Southern Chile. Regional Environmental Change.
Locher-Krause, K.E., S. Lautenbach & M. Volk (2017). Regional Environmental Change.
This study quantifies six ecosystem services linked to forest ecosystems over six temporal periods in Southern Chile. Our results show a high spatial and temporal variability of ecosystem service supply in the three main geomorphological units. A strong increase of plantation production (Coastal Range and Central Valley) as well as of forest recreation services over time (Coastal and Andes ranges) was observed. Our recommendations for landscape management are (i) an increase of buffer strips to reduce diffuse emissions into the rivers and to enhance ecological connectivity, (ii) an increase of protected areas in the Central Valley, and (iii) a rethinking of the role of exotic forest plantations.
Introduction to SWAT+, a completely restructured version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool.
Bieger, K., J.G. Arnold, H. Rathjens, M.J. White, D.D. Bosch, P.M. Allen, M. Volk & R. Srinivasan (2017). Journal of the American Water Resources Association 53(1).
This paper presents SWAT+, a completely restructured version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). It is expected to improve code development and maintenance; support data availability, analysis, and visualization; and enhance the model’s capabilities in terms of the spatial representation of elements and processes within watersheds. The most important change is the implementation of landscape units and flow and pollutant routing across the landscape. Also, SWAT+ offers more flexibility than SWAT in defining management schedules, routing constituents, and connecting managed flow systems to the natural stream network. The restructured model version was applied to the Little River Experimental Watershed (Georgia).
Trade-offs between plant species richness and carbon storage in the context of afforestation – Examples from afforestation scenarios in the Mulde Basin, Germany.
Lautenbach, S., A. Jungandreas, J. Blanke, V. Lehsten, S. Mühlner, I. Kühn & M. Volk (2017). Ecological Indicators 73: 139-155.
This study investigates possible trade-offs between carbon storage and plant biodiversity caused by afforestation in Saxony. Six afforestation scenarios with total forest cover ranging from 27.7% to 46% were generated in the Mulde river basin in Saxony with regard to different forest types. While afforestation had overall positive effects both on plant species richness and carbon storage, a number of locations were identified for which afforestation would lead to a decrease in plant species richness. Spatial planning should therefore avoid afforestation at these locations.
Validating MODIS and Sentinel-2 NDVI Products at a Temperate Deciduous Forest Site Using Two Independent Ground-Based
Lange, M., Dechant B., Rebmann, C., Vohland, M., Cuntz, M., Doktor, D. (2017). Sensors.
A validation site for Sentinel-2 satellite products was established in central Germany. Automatic multispectral and hyperspectral sensor systems were installed in parallel with an existing eddy covariance flux tower, providing spectral information of the vegetation present at high temporal resolution. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values from ground-based hyperspectral and multispectral sensors were compared with NDVI products derived from Sentinel-2A and Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). High correlations and similar phenological patterns between in situ and satellite-based NDVI time series demonstrated the reliability of satellite-based phenological metrics. Sentinel-2-derived metrics showed better agreement with in situ measurements than MODIS-derived metrics. Dynamic filtering with the best index slope extraction algorithm was nevertheless beneficial for Sentinel-2 NDVI time series despite the availability of quality information from the atmospheric correction procedure.
Priorities to advance monitoring of ecosystem services using Earth observation.
Cord, A.F., Brauman, K.A., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Huth, A., Ziv, G., Seppelt, R. (2017): Trends Ecol. Evol.
In this opinion article, we introduce a novel framework showing how Earth observation together with socioeconomic information and model-based analysis can support assessments of ecosystem service supply, demand, and benefit. The paper also proposes five priorities to advance the capabilities of Earth observation-based monitoring of ecosystem services (e.g., in the context of the SDGs).
Estimation of photosynthesis traits from leaf reflectance spectra: correlation to nitrogen content as the dominant mechanism.
Dechant, B., Cuntz, M., Vohland, M., Schulz, E., Doktor, D. (2017): Remote Sens. Environ.
We tested the performance of estimating two important photosynthesis traits, the maximum carboxylation capacity and the maximum electron transport rate, from in-situ leaf reflectance spectra. Approaches used that are applicable on larger spatial scales and showed that both parameters can be estimated from leaf reflectance measurements with good accuracy even for a large number of tree species and varying light environments. Detailed analysis with regard to prediction performances led to the conclusion that the correlation to Nitrogen content per area was the dominating mechanism on which models based.
Expanding temporal resolution in landscape transformations: Insights from a landsat-based case study in Southern Chile.
Locher-Krause, K.E., Volk, M., Waske, B., Thonfeld, F., Lautenbach, S. (2017): Ecol. Indic.
Understanding temporal and spatial dimensions of land cover dynamics is a critical factor to link ecosystem transformation to land and environmental management. Our analysis underlines the importance of expanding temporal resolution in land cover/use change studies to guide sustainable ecosystem management strategies as increase landscape connectivity and integrate landscape planning to economic activities.
Harmonizing Biodiversity Conservation and Productivity in the Context of Increasing Demands on Landscapes.
Seppelt R, Beckmann M, Ceauşu S, et al (2016): BioScience.
Biodiversity conservation and agricultural production are often seen as mutually exclusive objectives. We discuss that harmonization between biodiversity conservation and crop production can be improved and provide a general conceptual framework that links biodiversity and agricultural production.
Addressing future trade-offs between biodiversity and cropland expansion to improve food security.
Delzeit, R., Zabel, F., Meyer, C., Václavík, T. (2016): Reg. Envir. Chang.
This study addresses trade‐offs between providing sufficient food in the future and sustaining biodiversity by investigating (1) how global expansion of cropland might affect food production and prices, (2) where environmental conditions favor cropland expansion under changing climate, and (3) whether potential conversion to cropland would affect areas of high biodiversity or conservation importance.
Mapping pollination typeswith remote sensing.
Feilhauer, H., Doktor, D., Schmidtlein, S., Skidmore, A. K., (2016): J. Veg.Sci.
Pollination is an ecosystem function that varies at local spatial scales. We sampled vascular plant species composition (100 plots) and used hyperspectral remotely sensed data together with machine learning techniques to quantify and map the resulting patterns for a better understanding of ecosystem functioning. Pollination types and optical traits (LAI, dry matter content) were significantly correlated up to R2=0.813. The spatial distribution of pollination types could be statistically modelled with a RMSE < 10.5%. The results show that pollination types are indeed related to canopy reflectance in a way that allows their mapping using remote sensing but transferability to other ecosystem has still to be tested.
Coupling Satellite Data with Species Distribution and Connectivity Models as a Tool for Environmental Management and Planning in Matrix-Sensitive Species.
While anthropogenic habitat fragmentation increasingly disrupts connectivity in many species, potential habitats acting as inter-population connectivity corridors are mostly ignored in the common practice of environmental planning. In this study, we use fine-scale potential connectivity models (PCMs) derived from multispectral satellite data for the quantification of spatially explicit habitat corridors for matrix-sensitive species of conservation concern. We illustrate our approach using the sand lizard (Lacerta agilis L.) in the metropolitan area of Cologne, Germany, as a case study.
Geocaching data as an indicator for recreational ecosystem services in urban areas: exploring spatial gradients, preferences and motivations.
A.F. Cord, F. Roeßiger, N. Schwarz (2015): Landscape and Urban Planning.
In this paper, we focused on the recreational activity of ‘geocaching’ (www.geocaching.com), a worldwide outdoor game in which the participants use a GPS receiver to hide and seek containers. We used Leipzig as a case study and analyzed georeferenced localities of geocaches together with quantitative results of an online survey. We found that, while geocachers may have quite different motivations to participate in the activity, geocaching is indeed a type of local recreation and an indicator for urban ecosystem services, as green areas and experiences in nature are important.
Assessing ecosystem services for informing land-use decisions: a problem-oriented approach.
Förster, J., J. Barkmann, R. Fricke, S. Hotes, M. Kleyer, S. Kobbe, D. Kübler, C. Rumbaur, M. Siegmund-Schultze, R. Seppelt, J. Settele, J. Spangenberg, V. Tekken, T. Václavík, H. Wittmer (2015): Ecology & Society
The GLUES-team has synthesised lessons learned from ecosystem service assessments for informing land use decisions. Together with the projects SuLaMa, LEGATO, INNOVATE and SuMaRiO of the BMBF-financed Sustainable Land Management Programme, we published the paper in a Special Feature of the Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS), which is part of Future Earth
Effects of land use on plant diversity – A global meta-analysis
K. Gerstner, C. F. Dormann, A. Stein, A. Manceur, R. Seppelt (2014): Journal of Applied Ecology.
Plant diversity is globally threatened by anthropogenic land use while at regional and local scales evidence for declining species diversity is mixed. Our meta-analysis on land-use effects on plant species richness revealed that direct and indirect effects of land use are quite variable and can lead to both local decreases and increases. Further, we found important covariables of speciﬁc land-use classes and strong evidence that land-use effects are moderated by biomes suggesting that effects generally depend on species pool size.
Separating the effects of changes in land cover and climate: a hydro-meteorological analysis of the past 60 yr in Saxony, Germany.
Renner, M., K. Brust, K. Schwärzel, M. Volk & C. Bernhofer (2014): Hydrology and Earth System Sciences.
In this paper, a separation and attribution method based on a Budyko framework is illustrated. The analyses show significant effects of global warming on evaporation and the water balance of entire Saxony. However, the main reason for the changes of the water balance was industrial air pollution - it has been proven that the air pollution driven tree damages have been the crucial factor in the higher forested basins.
Impacts of agricultural land-use dynamics on erosion risks and options for land and water management in Northern Mongolia.
J. A. Priess, C. Schweitzer, O. Batkhishig, T. Koschitzki, D. Wurbs (2014): Environ Earth Sci.
In Mongolia, nomadic herders have successfully been grazing livestock for more than a millennium. However, for recent years, we estimated that i Northern Mongolia erosion risks under current land use sum up to approximately 2–4 Mg ha-1 year-1 for steppe and 4–9 Mg ha-1 year-1 for cropland. Scenario calculations indicate that land use and climate change can either reduce (-30 %) or aggravate erosion risks up to sevenfold and contribute to the challenges in water and soil management.
glUV: a global UV-B radiation data set for macroecological studies.
Beckmann, M., Václavík, T., Manceur, A. M., Šprtová, L., von Wehrden, H., Welk, E., Cord, A. F. (2014): Methods in Ecology and Evolution. DOI: 10.1111/2041-210X.12168
Many research projects study the effects of temperature and precipitation on the global distribution of plant and animal species. However, an important component of climate research, the UV-B radiation, is often neglected. Landscape ecologists from UFZ have processed UV-B data from the NASA space agency in such a way that they can be used to study the influence of UV-B radiation on organisms. The data set (global UV-B data set for macroecology: glUV) is freely available for download at
Accounting for geographical variation in species–area relationships improves the prediction of plant species richness at the global scale.
Gerstner, K., Dormann, C.F., Václavík, T., Kreft, H., Seppelt, R., (2013): Journal of Biogeography.
The species–area relationship (SAR) is a prominent concept for predicting species richness and biodiversity loss. A key step in defining SARs is to accurately estimate the slope of the relationship, but researchers typically apply only one global (canonical) slope which is overly simplistic. We show that predictions of global species richness patterns can be considerably improved by accounting for variation due to biomes.
Mapping global land system archetypes.
Václavík, T., Lautenbach, S., Kuemmerle, T., Seppelt, R. (2013): Global Environmental Change.
Mapping global land system archetypes provides a new representation of global land systems based on more than 30 high-resolution datasets on land-use intensity, environmental conditions and socioeconomic indicators. This approach advances our under-standing of the global patterns of human-environment interactions and of the environmental and social conditions associated with different types of land use.
Identifying trade-offs between ecosystem services, land use, and biodiversity: a plea for combining scenario analysis and optimization on different spatial scales
Seppelt, R., Lautenbach, S., Volk, M., (2013): Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability.
The publication provides perspectives on the application of exploratory modelling, esp. optimization for a quantitative analysis of trade-off of different types of land use in multifunctional landscape. We also discuss the integration of these as well as scenario analysis for solving regional as well as global aspect of land use conflicts.
The impact of Best Management Practices on simulated streamflow and sediment load in a Central Brazilian catchment:
Strauch, M., Lima, J.E.F.W. , Volk, M., Lorz, C., Makeschin, F., (2013): J. Environ. Manage.
In several Brazilian river basins Best Management Practices, such as terraces or sediment retention basins, are supported by 'Payments for Environmental Services'. By means of process-based scenario simulations, this study quantified the cost-effectiveness of such measures regarding sediment retention and water yield.
A new multi-scale approach for monitoring vegetation using remote sensing-based indicators in laboratory, field and landscape
Lausch, A. et al. (2012) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment.
Remote sensing is an important tool for studying patterns in surface processes on different spatiotemporal scales. However, differences in the spatiospectral and temporal resolution of remote sensing data as well as sensor-specific surveying characteristics very often hinder comparative analyses and effective up- and downscaling analyses. This paper presents a new methodical framework for combining hyperspectral remote sensing data on different spatial and temporal scales using the “One Sensor at Different Scales” (OSADIS) approach for the laboratory (plot), field (local), and landscape (regional) scales.
Spatial and temporal trends of global pollination benefit
Based on global data on land use and time series for production quantities and production prices of pollination dependent crops, an global increase in pollination benefits was shown and regional hotspots of pollination benefits were identified.
Exploring indicators for quantifying surface urban heat islands of European cities with MODIS land surface temperatures
Schwarz, N. et al. (2011) Remote Sensing of Environment, 115, 3175-3186.
This European wide analysis of urban heat island on the base of remote sensing data based on 263 cities revealed the variation of classical urban heat island indicators and identified the need to comparatively quantify several indicators of urban heat islands in parallel to foster comparability.
Using precipitation data ensemble for uncertainty analysis in SWAT streamflow simulation
Strauch, M., Bernhofer, C., Koide, S., Volk, M., Lorz, C., Makeschin, F. (2012) Journal of Hydrology 414-415, 413-424.
The study shows that ensemble modeling with multiple precipitation inputs can considerably increase the level of confidence in hydrological simulation results, particularly in data-poor regions.