Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1016/j.biocon.2022.109488
Document author version
Title (Primary) A novel application of hierarchical modelling to decouple sampling artifacts from socio-ecological effects on poaching intensity
Author Soofi, M.; Qashqaei, A.T.; Trei, J.-N.; Shokri, S.; Selyari, J.; Ghasemi, B.; Sepahvand, P.; Egli, L. ORCID logo ; Nezami, B.; Zamani, N.; Yusefi, G.H.; Kiabi, B.H.; Balkenhol, N.; Royle, A.; Pavey, C.R.; Redpath, S.M.; Waltert, M.
Source Titel Biological Conservation
Year 2022
Department CLE
Volume 267
Page From art. 109488
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Keywords Economic factors; Illegal killing; Large mammals; N-mixture model; Protected areas; Ranger station
Abstract Poaching is a global driver of wildlife population decline, including inside protected areas (PAs). Reducing poaching requires an understanding of its cryptic drivers and accurately quantifying poaching scales and intensity. There is little quantification of how poaching is affected by law enforcement intensity (e.g., ranger stations) versus economic factors (e.g., unemployment), while simultaneously accounting for imperfect detection. Using extensive data of poaching events (i.e., seizures) and censuses of nine ungulate species across the PAs and unprotected lands of Iran from 2010 to 2018, we developed a single-visit hierarchical (N-mixture) model to accurately estimate annual poaching of Iranian ungulates and to differentiate between social and ecological effects on annual poaching intensity. We found that poaching detectability increased with numbers of ranger stations. A recent surge in poaching (2013–2018) coincides with rising unemployment rate. We estimated that 19,727 ungulates (95% confidence interval 11,178–36,195) were poached across the country during 2010–2018. Poaching intensity was positively related to unemployment rate, road density, and ungulate abundance. Our simulations demonstrated that the Poisson and Negative binomial N-mixture models had adequate performance when the conditions of Sólymos et al. (2012) were satisfied, in particular, when at least one covariate is unique to both the detection and abundance parts of the model. Overall, we suggest that single-visit models offer unique insights into understanding the link between poaching intensity, economic conditions, and law enforcement in large-scale landscapes while accounting for imperfect detection of poaching events.
Persistent UFZ Identifier
Soofi, M., Qashqaei, A.T., Trei, J.-N., Shokri, S., Selyari, J., Ghasemi, B., Sepahvand, P., Egli, L., Nezami, B., Zamani, N., Yusefi, G.H., Kiabi, B.H., Balkenhol, N., Royle, A., Pavey, C.R., Redpath, S.M., Waltert, M. (2022):
A novel application of hierarchical modelling to decouple sampling artifacts from socio-ecological effects on poaching intensity
Biol. Conserv. 267 , art. 109488 10.1016/j.biocon.2022.109488