Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.111891
Document author version
Title (Primary) Population changes and sustainability of energy drive cooling demand related risks in urbanized India
Author Yaduvanshi, A.; Singh, R.; Kumar, R.
Journal Energy and Buildings
Year 2022
Department CHS
Volume 260
Page From art. 111891
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Keywords Cooling Demands; Global Warming; Risk Assessment; Cooling Degree Days; Urban; India; Population Growth; Renewable Energy; Electricity; Carbon Emissions
Abstract Global warming poses a challenge to India’s energy policy as rising temperatures coincide with population growth and lifestyle changes to substantial increase in cooling energy requirements. The concept of cooling degree-days (CDD) is often used to assess probable changes in cooling demands but, to date, no study has considered CDD changes within a risk framework to consider exposure and underlying vulnerabilities of a population. Here, we quantify the trends in observed CDD data across administrative divisions of India for 1951-2019. Using temperature data from five climate models under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), we then estimate the relative changes in average annual CDD across India under 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C levels of global warming. We further quantify the risk associated with increased cooling requirements for most urbanized regions of India using CDD as hazard, population as exposure, and two alternative vulnerability metrics that account for economic conditions (per capita Gross Domestic Product, GDP) and energy source (proportion of renewable energy to total energy). For 62% of administrative units, the Pettitt’s test identified a statistically significant change point in annual CDD values, with 1993 as the median year of change. Climate model projections suggest a likely increase of 5-14%, 13-80% and 22-160% in average annual CDD values for a majority (>90%) of administrative units under the 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C levels of global warming, respectively. The risk assessment showed that population exposure was the primary factor governing risk scores when per capita GDP was used as a proxy for vulnerability. Risk scores differed substantially when the vulnerability index was based on contribution of non-renewables to electricity requirements. Our analysis emphasizes that prevailing socio-economic conditions and energy policies are likely to play a strong role in mitigating climate change impacts related to cooling energy requirements in urbanized Indian regions.
Persistent UFZ Identifier https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=25749
Yaduvanshi, A., Singh, R., Kumar, R. (2022):
Population changes and sustainability of energy drive cooling demand related risks in urbanized India
Energy Build. 260 , art. 111891