Forest development in climate change and its consequences for soil processes and water quality in Saxony-Anhalt (AquaWald)
Co-funded by the European Union, Saxony-Anhalt SCIENCE Research and Innovation Programme (ERDF).
Duration: May 1, 2025 - June 30, 2027.
The large-scale loss of forests currently represents the greatest environmental problem in Saxony-Anhalt, with drastic consequences for the timber industry and the nutrient pollution of water bodies. Climate-induced warming, combined with severe droughts, has led to extensive forest damage caused by bark beetle infestations in Saxony-Anhalt, particularly in the Harz region. This has major economic impacts not only on the timber industry but also on tourism. In addition, the forest damage results in increased nutrient and carbon runoff, causing substantial deterioration in the water quality of rivers and drinking water resources.
The aim of the research project is therefore the long-term prediction of future forest development, its impact on the water and nutrient balance, and the resulting nutrient pollution of adjacent water bodies and drinking water resources. In this context, the effects of forward-looking silvicultural measures, including large-scale reforestation in Saxony-Anhalt, will be analyzed in light of future climate developments, with an evaluation of both timber yield and nutrient runoff as well as the impact on water quality.
For this purpose, an innovative model system — a digital forest twin — will be developed, which will enable the simultaneous investigation of (a) forest growth and timber yield under the influence of climate change and silvicultural measures, and (b) the nutrient dynamics in the soil and nutrient runoff into water bodies. By coupling models of forest growth and soil processes, it will be possible for the first time to quantify the medium- and long-term impacts on forestry and water management across the entire area of Saxony-Anhalt, and to identify options for efficient forest management under changing climatic conditions.
