Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Preprints
DOI 10.22541/essoar.15009992/v1
Title (Primary) A forensic investigation reveals a widespread anthropogenic warming fingerprint on Europe's July 2026 low flows
Author Kettaren, R.; Kumar, R. ORCID logo ; Sanchez Benitez, A.; Athanase, M.; Yadav, D.; Hanel, M.; Goessling, H.; Rakovec, O.
Source Titel ESS Open Archive
Year 2026
Department CHS
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Abstract
Exceptionally low river flows across Europe in July 2026 disrupted navigation, energy production and water-dependent economic activity. Using near-real-time, circulation-constrained global climate storylines combined with regional hydrological simulations, we show that nearly half of the European rivers analysed experienced discharge reductions exceeding 50% relative to the 1980-2025 July climatology. We find a widespread anthropogenic fingerprint on July 2026 low flows, with human-induced climate warming reducing discharge, by 26-38% at downstream locations along major European rivers including Rhine, Rhone, Po, and Danube. These reductions were largely driven by reduced spring-to-summer precipitation combined with enhanced evapotranspiration, intensifying the low-flow conditions associated with the observed circulation pattern. Our forensic investigation demonstrates that anthropogenic warming is already reshaping societally consequential low-flow extremes across Europe, reinforcing the need to accelerate water resilience and preparedness in a warming climate.
Kettaren, R., Kumar, R., Sanchez Benitez, A., Athanase, M., Yadav, D., Hanel, M., Goessling, H., Rakovec, O. (2026):
A forensic investigation reveals a widespread anthropogenic warming fingerprint on Europe's July 2026 low flows
ESS Open Archive
10.22541/essoar.15009992/v1