Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Preprints |
| DOI | 10.22541/essoar.15009992/v1 |
| Title (Primary) | A forensic investigation reveals a widespread anthropogenic warming fingerprint on Europe's July 2026 low flows |
| Author | Kettaren, R.; Kumar, R.
|
| Source Titel | ESS Open Archive |
| Year | 2026 |
| Department | CHS |
| Language | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Abstract | Exceptionally low river flows across Europe in
July 2026 disrupted navigation, energy production and water-dependent
economic activity. Using near-real-time, circulation-constrained global
climate storylines combined with regional hydrological simulations, we
show that nearly half of the European rivers analysed experienced
discharge reductions exceeding 50% relative to the 1980-2025 July
climatology. We find a widespread anthropogenic fingerprint on July 2026
low flows, with human-induced climate warming reducing discharge, by
26-38% at downstream locations along major European rivers including
Rhine, Rhone, Po, and Danube. These reductions were largely driven by
reduced spring-to-summer precipitation combined with enhanced
evapotranspiration, intensifying the low-flow conditions associated with
the observed circulation pattern. Our forensic investigation
demonstrates that anthropogenic warming is already reshaping societally
consequential low-flow extremes across Europe, reinforcing the need to
accelerate water resilience and preparedness in a warming climate. |
| Kettaren, R., Kumar, R., Sanchez Benitez, A., Athanase, M., Yadav, D., Hanel, M., Goessling, H., Rakovec, O. (2026): A forensic investigation reveals a widespread anthropogenic warming fingerprint on Europe's July 2026 low flows ESS Open Archive 10.22541/essoar.15009992/v1 |
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