Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Journals |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100883 |
Licence  |
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| Title (Primary) | An analysis of flood risk changes over time through a paired events approach in Southern Brazil |
| Author | Vanelli, F.M.; Monteiro, L.R.; Kobiyama, M.; de Brito, M.M.
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| Source Titel | Climate Risk Management |
| Year | 2026 |
| Department | SUSOZ |
| Page From | art. 100883 |
| Language | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Supplements | Supplement 1 |
| Keywords | Disaster risk reduction; Integrative approach; Socio-hydrology; Flood adaptation; Transdisciplinary; Systemic risk |
| Abstract | Climate and land use changes are intensifying floods worldwide, leading to more frequent unprecedented events. While adaptation strategies are widely implemented to mitigate flood impacts, their role in reducing risk remains poorly understood, particularly in the Global South, where data scarcity limits the use of conventional quantitative approaches. Here, we conduct a paired event analysis to investigate flood risk dynamics between 1980 and 2024 in Rio Negrinho Municipality, Southern Brazil. We integrate quantitative and descriptive-interpretive qualitative methods to analyse how physical (hazards) and social components (exposure, vulnerability, and capacity) interact to shape risk over time. Our results show that severe floods, such as those in 1983, 1992, and 2014, as well as nuisance floods, were followed by changes in risk management practices and adaptation responses. These changes are influenced by socio-political aspects, such as social articulation, political decisions, and available financial resources. We found that interventions, such as relocating critical infrastructure away from flood-prone areas, minimized cascading effects, while non-structural measures contributed to improved preparedness. These results highlight the importance of adaptation measures in reducing flood risk in resource-constrained contexts. Nevertheless, the dynamic of risk is complex: its drivers are context-specific, continuously evolving, and tightly coupled. Therefore, we call for more studies to better understand systemic risk in the Global South. Such endeavors can be supported by mixed-method approaches, where local researchers and citizens are actively involved in the characterization of risk and its impacts. |
| Vanelli, F.M., Monteiro, L.R., Kobiyama, M., de Brito, M.M. (2026): An analysis of flood risk changes over time through a paired events approach in Southern Brazil Clim. Risk Manag. , art. 100883 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100883 |
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