Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Journals |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111437 |
| Title (Primary) | Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling intensifies wildfires in Siberia in 2021 |
| Author | Xiao, X.; You, Q.; Cai, Z.; Chen, H.W.; Jin, Z.; Zuo, Z.; Qiao, L.; Chen, D.; Kang, S.; Peng, J.
; Chernokulsky, A.V.; Zhang, R. |
| Source Titel | Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
| Year | 2026 |
| Department | RS |
| Volume | 389 |
| Page From | art. 111437 |
| Language | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Keywords | Wildfires; Siberia; Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling |
| Abstract | In
summer 2021, Siberia experienced its most extreme wildfire season on
record. Yet the influence of soil moisture (SM)–atmosphere coupling on
this event remains unclear. Using multisource datasets, we show that
fire radiative power in the Siberian hotspot region during 2021 was
nearly 9 times the 2004–2024 average (excluding 2021), representing an
exceptional anomaly. Wildfire intensity scales exponentially with
temperature, vapor pressure deficit, precipitation, SM, and climatic
water deficit, underscoring the strong climate sensitivity of fire
activity under the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Applying
the flow analogue method, we found that negative SM anomalies explained
more than 60% of extreme daily temperatures during peak fire days,
pointing to the dominant role of surface drying in amplifying anomalous
warming. During 2004–2024, SM–atmosphere coupling has strengthened and
remained persistently synchronized with key fire-weather variables,
driving the system toward hotter and drier states. Through SM–atmosphere
coupling, the impacts of temperature and SM changes are further
reinforced, potentially pushing the system beyond critical thresholds,
thereby increasing the likelihood of extreme wildfires. These findings
highlight the pivotal role of SM–atmosphere coupling in wildfire
dynamics and its growing importance for understanding risks to
high-latitude ecosystems under climate change. |
| Xiao, X., You, Q., Cai, Z., Chen, H.W., Jin, Z., Zuo, Z., Qiao, L., Chen, D., Kang, S., Peng, J., Chernokulsky, A.V., Zhang, R. (2026): Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling intensifies wildfires in Siberia in 2021 Agric. For. Meteorol. 389 , art. 111437 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111437 |
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