Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105550
Title (Primary) Spring greening amplifies the risk of summer drought propagation across Northern Hemisphere ecosystems
Author Li, Y.; Huang, S.; Leng, G.; Huang, Q.; Wei, X.; Cui, H.; Peng, J. ORCID logo
Source Titel Global and Planetary Change
Year 2026
Department RS
Volume 264
Page From art. 105550
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Supplements Supplement 1
Keywords Spring greening; Meteorological drought; Ecological drought; Summer drought propagation; Global warming; Northern Hemisphere ecosystems
Abstract In recent decades, warming-induced advances in plant phenology have become widespread across the globe. However, whether early spring greening has beneficial or adverse effects on ecosystem responses to subsequent summer droughts remains unclear. To bridge this gap, this study employs vegetation remote sensing and meteorological data (1982–2022) to construct a Drought Propagation Index (DPI), analyzing the spatiotemporal patterns of how spring greening influences summer drought propagation risk from meteorological to ecological drought in Northern Hemisphere (NH) ecosystems. Research indicates that earlier spring greening exacerbates the overall risk of summer drought propagation in NH ecosystems by significantly increasing drought propagation probability (PP) and shortening propagation time (PT). This adverse effect amplifies synchronously with the intensification of meteorological drought stress. Under extreme drought conditions, greening leads to an average PP increase of 11.4%, resulting in heightened propagation risks across over 60% of the study area. The impacts of greening exhibit spatial heterogeneity. In high-latitude humid and sub-humid regions, the effects of greening are dominated by the Vegetation Structural Overshoot (VSO) pattern, leading to increased DPI in over 75% of grids in boreal forest and significantly heightened summer drought propagation risks. In contrast, grassland and shrub in arid and semi-arid experience relatively minor adverse effects from spring greening, with more than half of the grids showing alleviated summer drought propagation processes. Our results highlight that ecological drought risk planning under climate change, should consider the role of spring greening in promoting drought propagation, especially for ecosystems in humid regions with marked greening trends.
Li, Y., Huang, S., Leng, G., Huang, Q., Wei, X., Cui, H., Peng, J. (2026):
Spring greening amplifies the risk of summer drought propagation across Northern Hemisphere ecosystems
Glob. Planet. Change 264 , art. 105550
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105550