Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Journals |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105550 |
| Title (Primary) | Spring greening amplifies the risk of summer drought propagation across Northern Hemisphere ecosystems |
| Author | Li, Y.; Huang, S.; Leng, G.; Huang, Q.; Wei, X.; Cui, H.; Peng, J.
|
| Source Titel | Global and Planetary Change |
| Year | 2026 |
| Department | RS |
| Volume | 264 |
| Page From | art. 105550 |
| Language | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Supplements | Supplement 1 |
| Keywords | Spring greening; Meteorological drought; Ecological drought; Summer drought propagation; Global warming; Northern Hemisphere ecosystems |
| Abstract | In recent decades, warming-induced advances in plant phenology have become widespread across the globe. However, whether early spring greening has beneficial or adverse effects on ecosystem responses to subsequent summer droughts remains unclear. To bridge this gap, this study employs vegetation remote sensing and meteorological data (1982–2022) to construct a Drought Propagation Index (DPI), analyzing the spatiotemporal patterns of how spring greening influences summer drought propagation risk from meteorological to ecological drought in Northern Hemisphere (NH) ecosystems. Research indicates that earlier spring greening exacerbates the overall risk of summer drought propagation in NH ecosystems by significantly increasing drought propagation probability (PP) and shortening propagation time (PT). This adverse effect amplifies synchronously with the intensification of meteorological drought stress. Under extreme drought conditions, greening leads to an average PP increase of 11.4%, resulting in heightened propagation risks across over 60% of the study area. The impacts of greening exhibit spatial heterogeneity. In high-latitude humid and sub-humid regions, the effects of greening are dominated by the Vegetation Structural Overshoot (VSO) pattern, leading to increased DPI in over 75% of grids in boreal forest and significantly heightened summer drought propagation risks. In contrast, grassland and shrub in arid and semi-arid experience relatively minor adverse effects from spring greening, with more than half of the grids showing alleviated summer drought propagation processes. Our results highlight that ecological drought risk planning under climate change, should consider the role of spring greening in promoting drought propagation, especially for ecosystems in humid regions with marked greening trends. |
| Li, Y., Huang, S., Leng, G., Huang, Q., Wei, X., Cui, H., Peng, J. (2026): Spring greening amplifies the risk of summer drought propagation across Northern Hemisphere ecosystems Glob. Planet. Change 264 , art. 105550 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105550 |
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