Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Preprints |
| DOI | 10.22541/essoar.15004141/v1 |
| Title (Primary) | Earth-positive futures: adaptive steering of trajectories for Earth-system functions at the wicked intermediate scale |
| Author | Herzschuh, U.; Kühn, I.
; Liebner, S.; Schnepf, A.; Möckel, S.; Bischof, B.; Blume, T.; Bogena, H.; Brauns, M.; Busch, W.
; Chatzinotas, A.; Doktor, D.; Gourbet, L.; Grosse, G.; Hallmann, C.; Harpole, S.
; Herold, M.; Hovius, N.; Huth, A.; Muehe, E.M.; Pohl, F.
; Rode, J.
; Sachs, T.; Sachse, D.; Schild, L.; Schmitt-Jansen, M.; Schweiger, O.; Siebers, N.; Solly, E.F.; Tarkka, M.; Usadel, B.; Voigt, C.; Volk, M.
; von Bergen, M.; Weitere, M.; Wollschläger, U. |
| Source Titel | ESS Open Archive |
| Year | 2026 |
| Department | CLE; BZF; OESA; CHS; FLOEK; UPR; UPOL; iDiv; PHYDIV; BOSYS; TB1-Ecosystems; RS; ETOX; MOLTOX; AME; AECOL |
| Language | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Abstract | Translating global commitments to protect and restore nature into context-specific action remains difficult. Earth-system functions, including carbon storage, erosion regulation and pollination, are spatially heterogeneous, legacy-rich and rarely captured by a single global indicator. We introduce Earth-positive futures, a trajectory-based framework for assessing focal Earth-system functions and guiding efforts to recover, safeguard or strengthen them. The framework focuses on the wicked intermediate scale, the landscape-toregional and decadal-to-millennial domain where no single driver generally determines trajectories. Here, interacting natural and human processes create complex dynamics, but also reveal intervention points where actions can be planned, monitored and revised. For each use case, Earth-positive futures translate the complexity of a focal function and its controls into a tenable, decision-relevant suite of essential variables and driver metrics. Past-to-future trajectories built from these variables and metrics connect reference envelopes, degradation, legacies and future scenarios, and provide the basis for co-defining an Earth-positive future state, including target ranges for essential variables and guardrails for selected drivers. These trajectories can draw on harmonised time-series from palaeoproxy-, monitoring-, and model-derived data. An adaptive steering pathway is aligned to the trajectory; it details the phase-out of harmful practices and the phase-in of restorative, protective or transformative interventions. Steering denotes co-designed, revisable attempts to redirect selected essential-variable trajectories rather than controlling complex Earth-system functions. We illustrate the framework with palaeoproxy-supported forest-cover trajectories, demonstrating how reference envelopes, biodiversity trade-offs and colonisation credits can inform site selection and pathway design. Earthpositive futures evaluate whether focal Earth-system functions move toward recovery or strengthening, or remain within safeguarded target ranges, while supporting case-specific, trajectory-based Theories of Change. |
| Herzschuh, U., Kühn, I., Liebner, S., Schnepf, A., Möckel, S., Bischof, B., Blume, T., Bogena, H., Brauns, M., Busch, W., Chatzinotas, A., Doktor, D., Gourbet, L., Grosse, G., Hallmann, C., Harpole, S., Herold, M., Hovius, N., Huth, A., Muehe, E.M., Pohl, F., Rode, J., Sachs, T., Sachse, D., Schild, L., Schmitt-Jansen, M., Schweiger, O., Siebers, N., Solly, E.F., Tarkka, M., Usadel, B., Voigt, C., Volk, M., von Bergen, M., Weitere, M., Wollschläger, U. (2026): Earth-positive futures: adaptive steering of trajectories for Earth-system functions at the wicked intermediate scale ESS Open Archive 10.22541/essoar.15004141/v1 |
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