Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Journals |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135767 |
Licence  |
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| Title (Primary) | From fixed calendars to dynamic triggers: climate-responsive field management with SWAT + decision tables |
| Author | Eini, M.R.; Müller, B.
; Strauch, M.
|
| Source Titel | Journal of Hydrology |
| Year | 2026 |
| Department | CLE; OESA; iDiv |
| Volume | 677, Part A |
| Page From | art. 135767 |
| Language | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Keywords | hydrological modeling; global warming; crop management; food security |
| Abstract | Climate-change impact assessments using agro-hydrological models often assume that farmers will stick to the same planting and harvest dates in the future, even as the climate warms. This “fixed-calendar” assumption conflicts with reality, as farmers naturally adapt to shifting seasons, leading models to miscalculate crop yields and water use. To address this, we developed a workflow in the SWAT + model that replaces static calendar dates with dynamic rules that respond to the environment. We first analyzed historical management records to identify the specific weather conditions, such as accumulated heat or dry days, that actually prompt farmers to plant or harvest. We then translated these observations into “if-then” rules (decision tables) and tuned them to ensure they accurately reproduced historical farming timing. We applied this dynamic approach to winter wheat and corn silage in a German catchment under cool–dry, cool–wet, and warm–wet late-century climates. Rule-based management successfully adapts to future warming without requiring manual adjustments. For winter wheat, the median growing season is shortened from a historical ∼ 312 days to roughly 293–306 days in the future due to faster maturation. Conversely, corn silage growing seasons extended from a historical 144 days to 162–172 days in wet scenarios, driven by significantly earlier planting. Dynamic management consistently improved corn silage yields (+28.0% to + 47.9%) compared to the fixed-calendar approach. Environmentally, the dynamic rules were far more effective at mitigating pollution: nitrate runoff decreased by 48.5% to 86.6% for winter wheat relative to the baseline. In contrast, sticking to fixed dates resulted in erratic outcomes, such as a 30.6% increase in nitrate losses under cool–dry conditions. This study demonstrates that using adaptive rules instead of fixed dates reduces bias and produces more realistic climate-change impact assessments. |
| Eini, M.R., Müller, B., Strauch, M. (2026): From fixed calendars to dynamic triggers: climate-responsive field management with SWAT + decision tables J. Hydrol. 677, Part A , art. 135767 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135767 |
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