Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1029/2025GL118317Digital
Title (Primary) The value of Forecasters-in-the-Loop in Real-Time Flood Forecasting in the age of Machine Learning
Author Tran, V.N.; Xu, D.; Le, P.; Nguyen, V.T. ORCID logo ; Nguyen, G.T.; Restrepo, P.J.; Ivanov, V.Y.
Source Titel Geophysical Research Letters
Year 2026
Department HDG
Volume 53
Issue 8
Page From e2025GL118317
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Data and Software links https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15066778
Supplements Supplement 1
Abstract

Machine learning (ML) applications in hydrological forecasting are increasingly prevalent and show great potential. However, many previous studies have only evaluated performance through reanalysis or retrospective simulations compared to simplified baselines. This study provides the first assessment of ML performance against actual operational forecasting systems operated by the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), which combines the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) with forecasters-in-the-loop. Results demonstrate that forecasters-in-the-loop systems consistently outperform ML models in both general forecasts and flood alerting across lead times up to 96 hr, even when ML models use observed forcings, while CNRFC operational process relies on biased weather forecasts. Our analysis reveals that forecaster expertise maintains forecast reliability despite inaccurate precipitation inputs, with human-guided systems showing superior performance degradation characteristics at extended lead times. These findings highlight the irreplaceable value of human expertise in operational forecasting and caution against overstating current ML capabilities in real-world applications.

Tran, V.N., Xu, D., Le, P., Nguyen, V.T., Nguyen, G.T., Restrepo, P.J., Ivanov, V.Y. (2026):
The value of Forecasters-in-the-Loop in Real-Time Flood Forecasting in the age of Machine Learning
Geophys. Res. Lett. 53 (8), e2025GL118317
10.1029/2025GL118317Digital