Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1088/2752-5295/ae541a
Licence creative commons licence
Title (Primary) Attribution of extreme weather event impacts on crop yields and economic damages to climate change
Author Nagpal, M.; Heilemann, J.; Klassert, C.; Bevacqua, E. ORCID logo ; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L. ORCID logo ; Klauer, B.; Gawel, E. ORCID logo
Source Titel Environmental Research: Climate
Year 2026
Department OEKON; CHS; CER
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Abstract

As climate change intensifies, regions worldwide face growing impacts from extreme weather events (EWEs), including compound and sequential extreme events. These events pose significant risks to agriculture, where weather variability directly affects crop yields and revenue. Quantifying the share of damages attributable to human-induced climate change is essential for targeted mitigation and adaptation planning. Here, we estimate yield and revenue losses from EWEs attributable to human-induced climate change in Germany during 2018–2020. Using crop-specific statistical models, we compare simulated yields under factual (observed) and counterfactual (without climate change) conditions to assess climate change-attributable agricultural damages. We find that EWE-driven yield losses were statistically significantly affected by human-induced climate change across Germany, with the strongest negative impacts averaged over 2018–2020 for silage maize (-3.21%; [-4.73%, -1.68%], 95% range across 23 climate models). Winter crops showed smaller losses (e.g., winter wheat, -0.39% [-0.72%, -0.07%]) or even gains (e.g., winter barley, 1.04% [0.67%, 1.42%]). A pronounced north-south gradient emerged, with greater losses in northern and central Germany. Nationally, we estimate an average annual revenue loss of €287 [€212, €363] million, equivalent to 2.8% [2.2%, 3.3%] of the total counterfactual revenue. This loss accounts for roughly one-third of the estimated direct EWE-driven damages for German agriculture. Decomposition analysis reveals that these impacts are predominantly driven by temperature increases. Our results highlight the growing economic burden of EWEs on agriculture under climate change and offer actionable insights for climate-resilient agricultural policy, adaptation planning, and economic evaluation of mitigation strategies.

Nagpal, M., Heilemann, J., Klassert, C., Bevacqua, E., Rakovec, O., Samaniego, L., Klauer, B., Gawel, E. (2026):
Attribution of extreme weather event impacts on crop yields and economic damages to climate change
Environmental Research: Climate 10.1088/2752-5295/ae541a