Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Journals |
| DOI | 10.1029/2025EF007976 |
Licence  |
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| Title (Primary) | Drought-driven water insecurity in an emerging Indian megacity: A coupled multi-agent systems approach for policy evaluation |
| Author | Wang, A.; Klassert, C.J.A.; Karutz, R.; Smilovic, M.; Kahil, T.; Burek, P.; Zhu, Y.
; Zozmann, H.; Klauer, B.; Küblböck, K.; Omann, I.; Figueroa, A.J.; Wada, Y.; Naylor, R.; Gorelick, S.M. |
| Source Titel | Earth's Future |
| Year | 2026 |
| Department | OEKON; SUSOZ; UPOL |
| Volume | 14 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Page From | e2025EF007976 |
| Language | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Data and Software links | https://doi.org/10.25740/PN205CJ4887 https://doi.org/10.7917/OFSG3345 |
| Supplements | Supplement 1 |
| Keywords | multi-agent model; water security; drought mitigation; urban growth; climate change |
| Abstract | Developing regions face critical water security challenges driven by rapid urban growth, economic development, and climate change. In India, these issues are particularly evident in Pune, the country's 9th most populated city. It is evolving into a sprawling urban agglomeration expected to grow from 7 to 11 million residents by mid-century. The city's aging water-supply system is ill-equipped to ensure water access during droughts lasting 2–3 years, particularly for residents in informal settlements. We present a policy-evaluation model to assess options for addressing future urban freshwater insecurity. The model uses a coupled multi-agent systems approach that integrates human-environment interactions and responses to future drought, population, and economic conditions. Under business-as-usual for a mid-century, multi-year drought, major reservoirs dry up and groundwater levels decrease dramatically. The water use Gini coefficient exceeds 0.5, indicating severe inequality where most low-income individuals face: (a) unaffordable water costs (10%–18% of income), (b) vulnerability (<40 L daily), and (c) prolonged shortages (>6 continuous months). Comprehensive interventions, combining supply- and demand-side measures, cut the water use Gini coefficient in half and lower water costs by two-thirds. Implementing a strategic subset of interventions creates synergies that significantly enhance water security, yet remains insufficient for the low-income population. This study highlights how growing inequalities in urban water access exacerbate water security challenges, even under a suite of mitigating measures. In all scenarios, additional drought emergency supply will be required to address water insecurity of the lowest 10% income population. |
| Wang, A., Klassert, C.J.A., Karutz, R., Smilovic, M., Kahil, T., Burek, P., Zhu, Y., Zozmann, H., Klauer, B., Küblböck, K., Omann, I., Figueroa, A.J., Wada, Y., Naylor, R., Gorelick, S.M. (2026): Drought-driven water insecurity in an emerging Indian megacity: A coupled multi-agent systems approach for policy evaluation Earth Future 14 (3), e2025EF007976 10.1029/2025EF007976 |
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