Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Journals |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106941 |
Licence  |
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| Title (Primary) | A lightweight deepwater oxygen model for investigating lake responses to future climate |
| Author | Yaghouti, M.; Ayala, A.I.; Mesman, J.P.; Pierson, D.C.; Shatwell, T.; Nkwalale, L.G.T.
; Rinke, K.; Shi, H.; Jennings, E.; Hunter, P.; Woolway, R.I.; Jones, I.D. |
| Source Titel | Environmental Modelling & Software |
| Year | 2026 |
| Department | SEEFO |
| Volume | 200 |
| Page From | art. 106941 |
| Language | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Supplements | Supplement 1 |
| Keywords | Deepwater oxygen; Future projections; Climate change; Management framework; Oxygen stability; Lake Erken |
| Abstract | Climate-driven
deepwater deoxygenation is a growing global concern for lake
ecosystems. We developed a simple 1-D deepwater oxygen profile model to
understand the underlying physical mechanisms and to quantify the
required climate-adaptive interventions. It was applied to Lake Erken,
Sweden, using hydrodynamic forcing under three Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. From 2020 to 2099, the annual
anoxic factor (the number of days when the anoxic sediment area equals
the lake surface area) projections show non-significant trends under
RCP2.6, while increasing by 0.4 and 0.6 days year−1 decade−1
under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively. This climate-driven future
deoxygenation, consistent across multiple oxygen metrics, mainly stems
from prolonged stratification. To mitigate climate impacts by 2100,
oxygen depletion rates, as a proxy for eutrophication, would need to be
reduced by approximately 9–13%, 20–24% and 26–35% under RCP2.6, RCP6.0
and RCP8.5, respectively. This data-efficient framework can be applied
to physically-dominated, seasonally stratified lakes. |
| Yaghouti, M., Ayala, A.I., Mesman, J.P., Pierson, D.C., Shatwell, T., Nkwalale, L.G.T., Rinke, K., Shi, H., Jennings, E., Hunter, P., Woolway, R.I., Jones, I.D. (2026): A lightweight deepwater oxygen model for investigating lake responses to future climate Environ. Modell. Softw. 200 , art. 106941 10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106941 |
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