Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Journals |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.adapen.2026.100281 |
Licence  |
|
| Title (Primary) | Tango of renewables in the triangle of uncertainty: A German case study |
| Author | Gutjahr, S.; Thrän, D.
; Esmaeili Aliabadi, D.
|
| Source Titel | Advances in Applied Energy |
| Year | 2026 |
| Department | SANA |
| Volume | 22 |
| Page From | art. 100281 |
| Language | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Keywords | Stochastic optimization; Risk-sensitivity; Conditional value-at-risk; Solar and wind; Bioenergy |
| Abstract | Policymakers
have strongly supported the widespread adoption of solar and wind
energy as the two major pillars of the clean energy transition. Yet
these energy sources are prone to weather and climate variability, which
is often oversimplified in energy system models, resulting in a rather
optimistic portrayal of these technologies as silver-bullet solutions.
Bioenergy, with its inherent flexibility, can mitigate the negative
impacts of renewable energy intermittency on a net-zero emissions energy
system. As it takes two to tango, we analyze the interplay between
variable renewable energy and dispatchable bioenergy, considering the
past weather data using a risk-sensitive stochastic optimization model
and future climate scenarios for Germany. Our outcomes propose that when
solar and wind energy are abundant, the overall system cost is at a
minimum, whereas during shortages, flexible bioenergy can support
meeting electricity demand, albeit at a total system cost up to
approximately 10% higher, depending on the condition. Moreover, our
findings suggest that excessive risk sensitivity may drive greater
dependence on dispatchable fossil energy, which poses a serious threat
to achieving climate targets. Finally, we exhibit that under high
availability of solar and wind energy, the investments in these
technologies are more uniformly distributed across German federal
states, whereas under lower availability, the northern and southern
states are prioritized. While Germany serves as the case study, the
methodology developed is universal and can be applied to other energy
system optimization models with different geographical scopes, painting a
more realistic picture of the future predicaments and solutions. |
| Gutjahr, S., Thrän, D., Esmaeili Aliabadi, D. (2026): Tango of renewables in the triangle of uncertainty: A German case study Adv. Appl. Energy 22 , art. 100281 10.1016/j.adapen.2026.100281 |
|