Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Journals |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41612-025-01163-0 |
Licence  |
|
| Title (Primary) | Challenges in assessing Fire Weather changes in a warming climate |
| Author | Matteo, A.; Garnés-Morales, G.; Moreno, A.; Ribeiro, A.F.S.; Azorin-Molina, C.; Bedia, J.; Di Giuseppe, F.; Dunn, R.J.H.; Herrera, S.; Provenzale, A.; Quilcaille, Y.; Torres-Vázquez, M.A.; Turco, M. |
| Source Titel | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Year | 2025 |
| Department | CER |
| Volume | 8 |
| Page From | art. 284 |
| Language | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Supplements | https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41612-025-01163-0/MediaObjects/41612_2025_1163_MOESM1_ESM.pdf |
| Abstract | The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), widely used to assess wildfire danger, typically relies on noon-specific meteorological data. However, climate models often provide only daily aggregated values, posing a challenge for accurate FWI calculations. We evaluated daily approximations for FWI95d—the annual count of extreme fire-weather days—against the standard noon-based method (1980–2023). Our findings reveal that noon-based FWI95d show a global increase of ~65% (11.66 days over 44 years). In contrast, daily approximations tend to overestimate these trends by 5–10%, with combinations involving minimum relative humidity showing the largest divergences. Globally, up to 15 million km²—particularly in the western United States, southern Africa, and parts of Asia—exhibit significant overestimations. We recommend (i) prioritizing the inclusion of sub-daily meteorological data in future climate model intercomparison projects to enhance FWI accuracy, and (ii) adopting daily mean approximations as the least-biased alternative if noon-specific data are unavailable. |
| Persistent UFZ Identifier | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=31162 |
| Matteo, A., Garnés-Morales, G., Moreno, A., Ribeiro, A.F.S., Azorin-Molina, C., Bedia, J., Di Giuseppe, F., Dunn, R.J.H., Herrera, S., Provenzale, A., Quilcaille, Y., Torres-Vázquez, M.A., Turco, M. (2025): Challenges in assessing Fire Weather changes in a warming climate npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 8 , art. 284 10.1038/s41612-025-01163-0 |
|