Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Journals |
| DOI | 10.1029/2025EF006325 |
Licence  |
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| Title (Primary) | Global mapping of concurrent hazards and impacts associated with climate extremes under climate change |
| Author | Messori, G.; Muheki, D.; Batibeniz, F.; Bevacqua, E.
; Suarez-Gutierrez, L.; Thiery, W. |
| Source Titel | Earth's Future |
| Year | 2025 |
| Department | CER |
| Volume | 13 |
| Issue | 6 |
| Page From | e2025EF006325 |
| Language | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Data and Software links | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15095260 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5497633 |
| Supplements | Supplement 1 |
| Keywords | compound hazards; compound impacts; climate change; climate extremes |
| Abstract | Climate-related extreme events impose a heavy toll on humankind, and many will likely become more frequent in the future. The compound (joint) occurrence of different climate-related hazards and impacts can further exacerbate the detrimental consequences for society. By analyzing postprocessed data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, we provide a global mapping of future changes in the compound occurrence of six categories of hazards or impacts related to climate extremes. These are: river floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, tropical cyclone-induced winds and crop failures. In line with the existing literature, we find sharp increases in the occurrence of many individual hazards and impacts, notably heatwaves and wildfires. Under a medium-high emission scenario, many regions worldwide transition from chiefly experiencing a given category of hazard or impact in isolation to routinely experiencing compound hazard or impact occurrences. A similarly striking change is projected for the future recurrence of compound hazards or impacts, with many locations experiencing specific compound occurrences at least once a year for several years, or even decades, in a row. In the absence of effective global climate mitigation actions, we may thus witness a qualitative regime shift from a world dominated by individual climate-related hazards and impacts to one where compound occurrences become the norm. |
| Persistent UFZ Identifier | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=31046 |
| Messori, G., Muheki, D., Batibeniz, F., Bevacqua, E., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Thiery, W. (2025): Global mapping of concurrent hazards and impacts associated with climate extremes under climate change Earth Future 13 (6), e2025EF006325 10.1029/2025EF006325 |
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