Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Conference papers |
| DOI | 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11792 |
Licence  |
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| Title (Primary) | Simulating irrigation demand under climate change applying a high-resolution hydro-economic Multi-Agent-System model in Thuringia |
| Title (Secondary) | EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025 |
| Author | Werner, S.; Heilemann, J.; Klassert, C.; Nagpal, M.; Klauer, B.; Gawel, E. |
| Source Titel | EGUsphere |
| Year | 2025 |
| Department | OEKON |
| Page From | EGU25-11792 |
| Language | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Abstract | Agricultural systems in regions with previously low scale irrigation such as Thuringia, Germany, face an increase of droughts and weather extremes through climate change. Farmers are expected to adapt by increasing irrigation as a means of securing incomes. For Thuringia this entails water security implications due to limited groundwater resources and strong reliability on surface water highlighting the need to understand the feedbacks between human and natural systems in order to ensure efficient allocation and protection of water resources. So far, few studies have simultaneously combined hydro-economic models of the agricultural sector with hydrological models on a high spatial disaggregation to inform the future resilience of human-natural systems in historically water abundant regions such as Central Europe. We apply the DroughtMAS model, which simulates agricultural agents representing the production conditions of the local area, to Thuringia on a 4x4 km grid. We calibrate the model with plot-level remote sensing data using Econometric Mathematical Programming (EMP) to simulate cropping and irrigation decisions. Potential yields under climate change are calculated using machine-learning models. Socio-economic and climatic futures are simulated based on a plausible set of downscaled scenarios for Thuringia expanding upon the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) and Regionalized Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Regional water demand is linked to models of available groundwater to assess water security. We find a locally differentiated increase in irrigation demand and water insecurity under scenarios of drought and socio-economic change, implying the need for demand-side interventions or a provision of sufficient reservoir capacities. A spatially explicit coupled hydro-economic multi-agent approach enables an economic valuation of demand and supply side management options to inform the adaptation options towards climate resilient agricultural and hydrological systems. |
| Persistent UFZ Identifier | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=30879 |
| Werner, S., Heilemann, J., Klassert, C., Nagpal, M., Klauer, B., Gawel, E. (2025): Simulating irrigation demand under climate change applying a high-resolution hydro-economic Multi-Agent-System model in Thuringia EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025 EGUsphere Copernicus Publications, EGU25-11792 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11792 |
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