Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.3390/w16101371
Licence creative commons licence
Title (Primary) Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow, Nutrient Loads, and Crop Yields in the Gordes Dam Basin, Turkey
Author Özdemır, A.; Volk, M.; Strauch, M. ORCID logo ; Witing, F.
Source Titel Water
Year 2024
Department CLE
Volume 16
Issue 10
Page From art. 1371
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Keywords climate change impact; river basin management; flow rate; nitrogen loads; crop yields
Abstract The Mediterranean region is highly vulnerable to climate change. Longer and more intense heatwaves and droughts are expected. The Gordes Dam in Turkey provides drinking water for Izmir city and irrigation water for a wide range of crops grown in the basin. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), this study examined the effects of projected climate change (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) on the simulated streamflow, nitrogen loads, and crop yields in the basin for the period of 2031–2060. A hierarchical approach to define the hydrological response units (HRUs) of SWAT and the Fast Automatic Calibration Tool (FACT) were used to reduce computational time and improve model performance. The simulations showed that the average annual discharge into the reservoir is projected to increase by between 0.7 m3/s and 4 m3/s under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. The steep slopes and changes in precipitation in the study area may lead to higher simulated streamflow. In addition, the rising temperatures predicted in the projections could lead to earlier spring snowmelt. This could also lead to increased streamflow. Projected nitrogen loads increased by between 8.8 and 25.1 t/year. The results for agricultural production were more variable. While the yields of poppy, tobacco, winter barley, and winter wheat will increase to some extent because of climate change, the yields of maize, cucumbers, and potatoes are all predicted to be negatively affected. Non-continuous and limited data on water quality and crop yields lead to uncertainties, so that the accuracy of the model is affected by these limitations and inconsistencies. However, the results of this study provide a basis for developing sustainable water and land management practices at the catchment scale in response to climate change. The changes in water quality and quantity and the ecological balance resulting from changes in land use and management patterns for economic benefit could not be fully demonstrated in this study. To explore the most appropriate management strategies for sustainable crop production, the SWAT model developed in this study should be further used in a multi-criteria land use optimization analysis that considers not only crop yields but also water quantity and quality targets.
Persistent UFZ Identifier
Özdemır, A., Volk, M., Strauch, M., Witing, F. (2024):
Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow, Nutrient Loads, and Crop Yields in the Gordes Dam Basin, Turkey
Water 16 (10), art. 1371 10.3390/w16101371