Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1038/s43247-024-01248-3
Licence creative commons licence
Title (Primary) The time since land-use transition drives changes in fire activity in the Amazon-Cerrado region
Author Ribeiro, A.F.S.; Santos, L.; Randerson, J.T.; Uribe, M.R.; Alencar, A.A.C.; Macedo, M.N.; Morton, D.C.; Zscheischler, J. ORCID logo ; Silvestrini, R.A.; Rattis, L.; Seneviratne, S.I.; Brando, P.M.
Source Titel Communications Earth & Environment
Year 2024
Department CER
Volume 5
Page From art. 96
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Data and Software links
Abstract Deforestation and climate change are expected to alter fire regimes along the Cerrado-Amazon transition, one of the world’s most active agricultural frontiers. Here we tested the hypothesis that the time since land-use transition (age of frontier) and agricultural intensification also drive changes in the region’s fire regimes by reducing fire probability in both drought and non-drought years. We modeled fire probability as a function of the time since land-use transitions based on MapBiomas Project datasets from 1986 to 2020. We find that, while burned area declined as pasturelands aged and croplands advanced, deforestation abruptly increased fire activity before (Amazon: 4 years; Cerrado: 3 years) and after (Amazon: 8 years; Cerrado: 7 years) land clearing for pasture, especially in the Amazon. Additionally, the combination of ignition risk, drought, and air-dryness increased the likelihood of large extents of burned areas associated with deforestation. Incorporating frontier age as a proxy for governance in fire modeling is crucial, given the ecological implications of changing fire regimes despite declining rates of fire probability. Most importantly, protecting against deforestation and preserving native vegetation are vital.
Persistent UFZ Identifier
Ribeiro, A.F.S., Santos, L., Randerson, J.T., Uribe, M.R., Alencar, A.A.C., Macedo, M.N., Morton, D.C., Zscheischler, J., Silvestrini, R.A., Rattis, L., Seneviratne, S.I., Brando, P.M. (2024):
The time since land-use transition drives changes in fire activity in the Amazon-Cerrado region
Commun. Earth Environ. 5 , art. 96 10.1038/s43247-024-01248-3