Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Journals |
| DOI | 10.1038/s43247-024-01248-3 |
Licence  |
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| Title (Primary) | The time since land-use transition drives changes in fire activity in the Amazon-Cerrado region |
| Author | Ribeiro, A.F.S.; Santos, L.; Randerson, J.T.; Uribe, M.R.; Alencar, A.A.C.; Macedo, M.N.; Morton, D.C.; Zscheischler, J.
; Silvestrini, R.A.; Rattis, L.; Seneviratne, S.I.; Brando, P.M. |
| Source Titel | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Year | 2024 |
| Department | CER |
| Volume | 5 |
| Page From | art. 96 |
| Language | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Data and Software links | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10497344 |
| Supplements | https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs43247-024-01248-3/MediaObjects/43247_2024_1248_MOESM2_ESM.pdf |
| Abstract | Deforestation and climate change are expected to alter fire regimes along the Cerrado-Amazon transition, one of the world’s most active agricultural frontiers. Here we tested the hypothesis that the time since land-use transition (age of frontier) and agricultural intensification also drive changes in the region’s fire regimes by reducing fire probability in both drought and non-drought years. We modeled fire probability as a function of the time since land-use transitions based on MapBiomas Project datasets from 1986 to 2020. We find that, while burned area declined as pasturelands aged and croplands advanced, deforestation abruptly increased fire activity before (Amazon: 4 years; Cerrado: 3 years) and after (Amazon: 8 years; Cerrado: 7 years) land clearing for pasture, especially in the Amazon. Additionally, the combination of ignition risk, drought, and air-dryness increased the likelihood of large extents of burned areas associated with deforestation. Incorporating frontier age as a proxy for governance in fire modeling is crucial, given the ecological implications of changing fire regimes despite declining rates of fire probability. Most importantly, protecting against deforestation and preserving native vegetation are vital. |
| Persistent UFZ Identifier | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=28893 |
| Ribeiro, A.F.S., Santos, L., Randerson, J.T., Uribe, M.R., Alencar, A.A.C., Macedo, M.N., Morton, D.C., Zscheischler, J., Silvestrini, R.A., Rattis, L., Seneviratne, S.I., Brando, P.M. (2024): The time since land-use transition drives changes in fire activity in the Amazon-Cerrado region Commun. Earth Environ. 5 , art. 96 10.1038/s43247-024-01248-3 |
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