Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Journals |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106959 |
Licence  |
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| Title (Primary) | Combinations of drivers that most favor the occurrence of daily precipitation extremes |
| Author | Gimeno-Sotelo, L.; Bevacqua, E.
; Gimeno, L. |
| Source Titel | Atmospheric Research |
| Year | 2023 |
| Department | CHS |
| Volume | 294 |
| Page From | art. 109695 |
| Language | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Supplements | https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0169809523003563-mmc1.pdf |
| Keywords | Extreme precipitation; Precipitable water; Moisture transport; Atmospheric instability |
| Abstract | Previous studies indicate atmospheric instability, total column water vapor, and horizontal moisture transport as major drivers of precipitation extremes, however little is known about how the combination of these drivers affects precipitation extremes across the world. Here, using daily data from the ERA-5 reanalysis spanning the period 1981–2020, we identified the combinations of extreme values for these three major drivers that enhance the probability of daily precipitation extremes on a global scale. Our findings show that extreme daily precipitation is practically impossible without any of these drivers being extreme. Atmospheric instability is the primary driver of precipitation extremes, meaning that, among the three cases of the drivers being extreme in isolation, extreme atmospheric instability is associated with the highest average probability of extreme precipitation over landmasses (29% during December–February, 32% during June–August). When considering the combination of two drivers being simultaneously extreme, joint extremes of atmospheric instability and total column water vapor (and non-extreme horizontal moisture transport) lead to the highest probability of extreme precipitation (69% during December–February, 70% during June–August), which is similar to the probability under three drivers in extreme conditions (67% and 72%). Our results point to a latitudinal variation of the combination that leads to the highest probability of extreme precipitation. In subtropics, the case of the three extreme drivers dominates, whereas in extratropical regions, the dominant combination is that of the joint extremes of atmospheric instability and total column water vapor (and non-extreme horizontal moisture transport). By providing information on the most important drivers of precipitation extremes worldwide, these results can serve as a basis for evaluating precipitation extremes in climate models and understanding projected changes, which is vital for developing robust risk assessments. |
| Persistent UFZ Identifier | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=28518 |
| Gimeno-Sotelo, L., Bevacqua, E., Gimeno, L. (2023): Combinations of drivers that most favor the occurrence of daily precipitation extremes Atmos. Res. 294 , art. 109695 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106959 |
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