Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Preprints |
| DOI | 10.1101/2023.11.16.23298614 |
Licence  |
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| Title (Primary) | Testing-isolation interventions will likely be insufficient to contain future novel disease outbreaks |
| Author | Demers, J.; Fagan, W.F.; Potluri, S.; Calabrese, J.M. |
| Source Titel | medRxiv |
| Year | 2023 |
| Department | OESA |
| Language | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Abstract | When novel human diseases emerge into naive populations, identification and isolation of infected individuals forms the first line of defense against the invading pathogens. Diagnostic testing plays a critical role, but health agencies unprepared for a novel disease invasion may struggle to meet the massive testing capacities demanded by an epidemic outbreak, potentially resulting in a failure of epidemic containment as with COVID-19. What factors make a disease controllable versus uncontrollable with limited testing supplies remains unclear. Specifically, is the failure of testing-isolation unique to COVID-19, or is this a likely outcome across the spectrum of disease traits that may constitute future epidemics? Here, using a generalized mathematical disease model parameterized for each of seven different human diseases, we show that testing-isolation strategies will typically fail to contain epidemic outbreaks at practicably achievable testing capacities. From this analysis, we identify three key disease characteristics that govern controllability under resource constraints; the basic reproduction number, mean latent period, and non-symptomatic transmission index. Interactions among these characteristics play prominent roles in both explaining controllability differences among diseases and enhancing the efficacy of testing-isolation in combination with transmission-reduction measures. This study provides broad guidelines for managing controllability expectations during future novel disease invasions, describing which classes of diseases are most amenable to testing-isolation strategies alone and which will necessitate additional transmission-reduction measures like social distancing. |
| Persistent UFZ Identifier | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=28282 |
| Demers, J., Fagan, W.F., Potluri, S., Calabrese, J.M. (2023): Testing-isolation interventions will likely be insufficient to contain future novel disease outbreaks medRxiv 10.1101/2023.11.16.23298614 |
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