Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1029/2023EF003976
Licence creative commons licence
Title (Primary) Escalating hot-dry extremes amplify compound fire weather risk
Author Fan, X.; Miao, C.; Zscheischler, J. ORCID logo ; Slater, L.; Wu, Y.; Chai, Y.; AghaKouchak, A.
Source Titel Earth's Future
Year 2023
Department CHS
Volume 11
Issue 11
Page From e2023EF003976
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Data and Software links https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47
https://doi.org/10.7927/m30p-j498
Supplements https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1029%2F2023EF003976&file=2023EF003976-sup-0001-Supporting+Information+SI-S01.docx
Keywords compound fire weather; hot-drought extremes; risk exposure; gobal climate model
Abstract Fire weather compounded by extremely hot and dry conditions often severely impacts society and ecosystems. To mitigate and better adapt to these compound fire weather (CFW) events, a better understanding of recent and future CFW trends is needed. Here we show that in the period 1981–2020, the global average frequency and intensity of CFW events increased by 0.6 days/yr and 0.4%/yr, respectively. Increases in temperature and decreases in relative humidity were responsible for significant trends in the frequency of CFW events in 81.7% and 58.6% of locations, respectively. The same trends contributed to significant increases in CFW intensity in 72.1% and 57.9% of locations. We further demonstrate that anthropogenic climate change (due primarily to greenhouse gas emissions) has aggravated the frequency and intensity of CFW events, particularly in the Amazon region, with over 2-fold and 1.3-fold increases, respectively. Future projections reveal that other (individual) fire weather events are likely to shift toward CFW events accompanied by hot-dry conditions, along with an expected rise in CFW intensity. Furthermore, the increased occurrence of CFW events is likely to substantially augment future population exposure to CFW conditions. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, climate change is estimated to contribute 62.6% of the projected increase in population exposure to CFW events by the end of this century. Our findings underscore the urgent need for strong climate action to reduce population exposure to the growing threat of future fire weather events compounded with hot and dry conditions.
Persistent UFZ Identifier https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=28206
Fan, X., Miao, C., Zscheischler, J., Slater, L., Wu, Y., Chai, Y., AghaKouchak, A. (2023):
Escalating hot-dry extremes amplify compound fire weather risk
Earth Future 11 (11), e2023EF003976