Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1002/joc.8160
Licence creative commons licence
Title (Primary) Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat-related mortality varies from country to country
Author Lo, Y.T.E.; Mitchell, D.M.; Buzan, J.R.; Zscheischler, J. ORCID logo ; Schneider, R.; Mistry, M.N.; Kyselý, J.; Lavigne, É.; Pereira da Silva, S.; Royé, D.; Urban, A.; Armstrong, B.; Gasparrini, A.; Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M.
Source Titel International Journal of Climatology
Year 2023
Department CHS
Volume 43
Issue 12
Page From 5553
Page To 5568
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Keywords climate and health; dry heat; heat stress; heat-related mortality; humid heat
Abstract Combined heat and humidity is frequently described as the main driver of human heat-related mortality, more so than dry-bulb temperature alone. While based on physiological thinking, this assumption has not been robustly supported by epidemiological evidence. By performing the first systematic comparison of eight heat stress metrics (i.e., temperature combined with humidity and other climate variables) with warm-season mortality, in 604 locations over 39 countries, we find that the optimal metric for modelling mortality varies from country to country. Temperature metrics with no or little humidity modification associates best with mortality in ~40% of the studied countries. Apparent temperature (combined temperature, humidity and wind speed) dominates in another 40% of countries. There is no obvious climate grouping in these results. We recommend, where possible, that researchers use the optimal metric for each country. However, dry-bulb temperature performs similarly to humidity-based heat stress metrics in estimating heat-related mortality in present-day climate.
Persistent UFZ Identifier
Lo, Y.T.E., Mitchell, D.M., Buzan, J.R., Zscheischler, J., Schneider, R., Mistry, M.N., Kyselý, J., Lavigne, É., Pereira da Silva, S., Royé, D., Urban, A., Armstrong, B., Gasparrini, A., Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M. (2023):
Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat-related mortality varies from country to country
Int. J. Climatol. 43 (12), 5553 - 5568 10.1002/joc.8160