Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1038/s41467-023-39039-7
Licence creative commons licence
Title (Primary) Large anomalies in future extreme precipitation sensitivity driven by atmospheric dynamics
Author Gu, L.; Gentine, P.; Wang, H.-M.; Slater, L.J.; Sullivan, S.C.; Chen, J.; Zscheischler, J. ORCID logo ; Guo, S.
Source Titel Nature Communications
Year 2023
Department CHS
Volume 14
Page From art. 3197
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Abstract Increasing atmospheric moisture content is expected to intensify precipitation extremes under climate warming. However, extreme precipitation sensitivity (EPS) to temperature is complicated by the presence of reduced or hook-shaped scaling, and the underlying physical mechanisms remain unclear. Here, by using atmospheric reanalysis and climate model projections, we propose a physical decomposition of EPS into thermodynamic and dynamic components (i.e., the effects of atmospheric moisture and vertical ascent velocity) at a global scale in both historical and future climates. Unlike previous expectations, we find that thermodynamics do not always contribute to precipitation intensification, with the lapse rate effect and the pressure component partly offsetting positive EPS. Large anomalies in future EPS projections (with lower and upper quartiles of −1.9%/°C and 8.0%/°C) are caused by changes in updraft strength (i.e., the dynamic component), with a contrast of positive anomalies over oceans and negative anomalies over land areas. These findings reveal counteracting effects of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics on EPS, and underscore the importance of understanding precipitation extremes by decomposing thermodynamic effects into more detailed terms.
Persistent UFZ Identifier
Gu, L., Gentine, P., Wang, H.-M., Slater, L.J., Sullivan, S.C., Chen, J., Zscheischler, J., Guo, S. (2023):
Large anomalies in future extreme precipitation sensitivity driven by atmospheric dynamics
Nat. Commun. 14 , art. 3197 10.1038/s41467-023-39039-7