|The inclusion of immediate and lagged climate responses amplifies the effect of climate autocorrelation on long-term growth rate of populations
|Evers, S.M.; Knight, T.M.; Compagnoni, A.
|Journal of Ecology
|T5 Future Landscapes
|Data and Software links
|climate autocorrelation; climate drivers; degree of iteroparity; lagged climate; life expectancy; matrix population models; plant–climate interactions; stochastic population growth rate; time windows
- Climate variability will increase with climate
change, and thus it is important for population ecologists to understand
its consequences for population dynamics. Four components are known to
mediate the consequences of climate variability: the magnitude of
climate variability, the effect size of climate on vital rates,
covariance between vital rates and autocorrelation in climate. Recent
studies have pointed to a potential fifth component: vital rates
responding to climate in different timeframes, with some responding more
immediately and some having lagged responses.
- We use simulations to quantify how all five
components modify the consequences of climatic variability on long-term
population growth rates across a range of life histories defined by life
expectancy and iteroparity. We use an established method to compose
Matrix Population Models for 147 life histories.
- Our simulations show that including different
timeframes for vital rates responses to climate can either reduce or
amplify the negative influence of climate variability on long-term
population growth rates. The negative effect of different timeframes for
vital rates responses on population growth is amplified when climatic
autocorrelations are negative, and when species are long-lived.
- Synthesis. The existing literature shows that
vital rates often respond to climate in different timeframes, and that
studies often ignore climate autocorrelation. Our results show that
simultaneously including both of these factors can substantially
increase or decrease a population's expected growth rate. Moreover, the
relative magnitude of this change increases with the generation time of a
life history. Our results are relevant to conservation, population
forecasts and population modelling in general.
|Persistent UFZ Identifier
|Evers, S.M., Knight, T.M., Compagnoni, A. (2023):
The inclusion of immediate and lagged climate responses amplifies the effect of climate autocorrelation on long-term growth rate of populations
J. Ecol. 111 (9), 1985 - 1996