Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129716
Title (Primary) Warming and greening exacerbate the propagation risk from meteorological to soil moisture drought
Author Li, Y.; Huang, S.; Wang, H.; Huang, Q.; Li, P.; Zheng, X.; Wang, Z.; Jiang, S.; Leng, G.; Li, J.; Peng, J. ORCID logo
Source Titel Journal of Hydrology
Year 2023
Department CHS; RS
Volume 622, Part B
Page From art. 129716
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Abstract Quantifying the propagation time (PT) and trigger threshold (TR) from meteorological to soil moisture drought is critically important for drought early warning and precise defense. Nevertheless, existing propagation characteristics usually have a low temporal-spatial resolution, and their dynamics and related driving mechanisms (such as global warming and greening) are still incompletely understood. To fill the knowledge gap, this study proposes a drought propagation model based on the Bayesian causal analysis framework for quantifying the PT and TR with a high resolution. Taking Northeast China (NEC) as a case study, we further explore the dynamics of drought propagation characteristics in recent decades and possible driving mechanisms using the sliding window and Random Forest model. Results showed that: (1) the drought PT varies spatially and temporally in the study area, with long PT in the central plain and western high-altitude areas in the early growing season (typically over 200 days), while short in the middle and late growing season in most regions (less than one month in July and August), The TR is generally lower than 80 mm in the western regions and do not change significantly with time; (2) the PT and TR in the vast central and western regions exhibit a downward trend in the late growing season, resulting in a strikingly increased risk of drought propagation; (3) Increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD) due to warming, along with decreasing aridity index (AI) due to precipitation shortage are the main drivers on the accelerated drought propagation. Moreover, local greening has also played a critical role in accelerating propagation via transpiration that consumes soil water, which contributes more than 20% to propagation dynamics. Overall, this study sheds new insights into drought propagation dynamics and mechanisms in a changing environment, providing a promising avenue for drought early warning and mitigation.
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Li, Y., Huang, S., Wang, H., Huang, Q., Li, P., Zheng, X., Wang, Z., Jiang, S., Leng, G., Li, J., Peng, J. (2023):
Warming and greening exacerbate the propagation risk from meteorological to soil moisture drought
J. Hydrol. 622, Part B , art. 129716