| Category |
Text Publication |
| Reference Category |
Journals |
| DOI |
10.1002/pan3.10472
|
| Licence |
|
| Title (Primary) |
The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land-use–biodiversity models |
| Author |
Sarmento Cabral, J.; Mendoza-Ponce, A.; Pinto da Silva, A.; Oberpriller, J.; Mimet, A.; Kieslinger, J.; Berger, T.; Blechschmidt, J.; Brönner, M.; Classen, A.; Fallert, S.; Hartig, F.; Hof, C.; Hoffmann, M.; Knoke, T.; Krause, A.; Lewerentz, A.; Pohle, P.; Raeder, U.; Rammig, A.; Redlich, S.; Rubanschi, S.; Stetter, C.; Weisser, W.; Vedder, D.; Verburg, P.H.; Zurell, D. |
| Journal |
People and Nature |
| Year |
2023 |
| Department |
iDiv; ESS |
| Language |
englisch |
| Topic |
T5 Future Landscapes |
| Supplements |
https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1002%2Fpan3.10472&file=pan310472-sup-0001-Cabral_etal_Direct+and+Indirect+CC+effects_R1_SI_Final.docx |
| Keywords |
agent-based models; biodiversity response; environmental change; indirect effects; integrative approaches; mechanistic models; socio-ecological systems; species richness |
| Abstract |
- Current approaches to project spatial biodiversity
responses to climate change mainly focus on the direct effects of
climate on species while regarding land use and land cover as constant
or prescribed by global land-use scenarios. However, local land-use
decisions are often affected by climate change and biodiversity on top
of socioeconomic and policy drivers. To realistically understand and
predict climate impacts on biodiversity, it is, therefore, necessary to
integrate both direct and indirect effects (via climate-driven land-use
change) of climate change on biodiversity.
- In this perspective paper, we outline how
biodiversity models could be better integrated with regional,
climate-driven land-use models. We initially provide a short,
non-exhaustive review of empirical and modelling approaches to land-use
and land-cover change (LU) and biodiversity (BD) change at regional
scales, which forms the base for our perspective about improved
integration of LU and BD models. We consider a diversity of approaches,
with a special emphasis on mechanistic models. We also look at current
levels of integration and at model properties, such as scales, inputs
and outputs, to further identify integration challenges and
opportunities.
- We find that LU integration in BD models is more
frequent than the other way around and has been achieved at different
levels: from overlapping predictions to simultaneously coupled
simulations (i.e. bidirectional effects). Of the integrated LU-BD
socio-ecological models, some studies included climate change effects on
LU, but the relative contribution of direct vs. indirect effects of
climate change on BD remains a key research challenge.
- Important research avenues include concerted efforts
in harmonizing spatial and temporal resolution, disentangling direct and
indirect effects of climate change on biodiversity, explicitly
accounting for bidirectional feedbacks, and ultimately feeding
socio-ecological systems back into climate predictions. These avenues
can be navigated by matching models, plugins for format and resolution
conversion, and increasing the land-use forecast horizon with adequate
uncertainty. Recent developments of coupled models show that such
integration is achievable and can lead to novel insights into
climate–land use–biodiversity relations.
|
| Persistent UFZ Identifier |
https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=27075 |
Sarmento Cabral, J., Mendoza-Ponce, A., Pinto da Silva, A., Oberpriller, J., Mimet, A., Kieslinger, J., Berger, T., Blechschmidt, J., Brönner, M., Classen, A., Fallert, S., Hartig, F., Hof, C., Hoffmann, M., Knoke, T., Krause, A., Lewerentz, A., Pohle, P., Raeder, U., Rammig, A., Redlich, S., Rubanschi, S., Stetter, C., Weisser, W., Vedder, D., Verburg, P.H., Zurell, D. (2023):
The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land-use–biodiversity models
People Nat. |
