Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8c5c
Licence creative commons licence
Title (Primary) A framework to incorporate spatiotemporal variability of rainfall extremes in summer monsoon declaration in India
Author Mishra, V.; Tiwari, A.D.; Kumar, R. ORCID logo
Source Titel Environmental Research Letters
Year 2022
Department CHS
Volume 17
Issue 9
Page From art. 094039
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Keywords drought; wet extremes; Indian monsoon
Abstract The Indian summer monsoon rainfall is a lifeline for agricultural activities and the socio-economic development of more than 1 billion people. All-India averaged summer monsoon rainfall has about 10% variability from its long-term mean. A departure of all-India averaged precipitation within ±10% is declared a normal summer monsoon. Using the long-term (1901–2021) gridded rainfall observations, we highlight the limitations in the current approach to the declaration of the normal summer monsoon, which ignores the role of spatiotemporal variability of rainfall. Dry and wet extremes within the same monsoon season can lead to a normal monsoon. Moreover, different parts of the country face drought and wet extremes, while the summer monsoon can be declared normal. Considering the profound implications of dry and wet extremes on agricultural activities, we propose a novel framework to account for the rainfall variability in the declaration of the summer monsoon. The proposed framework accounts for the temporal variability through a combined severity coverage index, while spatial variability using a clustering approach. Based on the existing framework, we find that 84 years were declared normal in the last 121 years (1901–1921). However, 13 years (out of 84) were not normal based on the new framework due to dry and wet extremes occurring at different times and in different regions. The new framework of summer monsoon declaration can account for the occurrence of extremes and their implications for agriculture and water management.
Persistent UFZ Identifier https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=26593
Mishra, V., Tiwari, A.D., Kumar, R. (2022):
A framework to incorporate spatiotemporal variability of rainfall extremes in summer monsoon declaration in India
Environ. Res. Lett. 17 (9), art. 094039 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8c5c