Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1038/s41467-022-32942-5
Licence creative commons licence
Title (Primary) Strong influence of north Pacific Ocean variability on Indian summer heatwaves
Author Hari, V.; Ghosh, S.; Zhang, W.; Kumar, R.
Journal Nature Communications
Year 2022
Department CHS
Volume 13
Page From art. 5349
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Abstract Increased occurrence of heatwaves across different parts of the world is one of the characteristic signatures of anthropogenic warming. With a 1.3 billion population, India is one of the hot spots that experience deadly heatwaves during May-June – yet the large-scale physical mechanism and teleconnection patterns driving such events remain poorly understood. Here using observations and controlled climate model experiments, we demonstrate a significant footprint of the far-reaching Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) on the heatwave intensity (and duration) across North Central India (NCI) – the high risk region prone to heatwaves. A strong positive phase of PMM leads to a significant increase in heatwave intensity and duration over NCI (0.8-2 °C and 3–6 days; p < 0.05) and vice-versa. The current generation (CMIP6) climate models that adequately capture the PMM and their responses to NCI heatwaves, project significantly higher intensities of future heatwaves (0.5-1 °C; p < 0.05) compared to all model ensembles. These differences in the intensities of heatwaves could significantly increase the mortality (by ≈150%) and therefore can have substantial implications on designing the mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Persistent UFZ Identifier
Hari, V., Ghosh, S., Zhang, W., Kumar, R. (2022):
Strong influence of north Pacific Ocean variability on Indian summer heatwaves
Nat. Commun. 13 , art. 5349