Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105489
Licence creative commons licence
Title (Primary) Model-derived causal explanations are inherently constrained by hidden assumptions and context: The example of Baltic cod dynamics
Author Banitz, T. ORCID logo ; Schlüter, M.; Lindkvist, E.; Radosavljevic, S.; Johansson, L.-G.; Ylikoski, P.; Martínez-Peña, R.; Grimm, V.
Source Titel Environmental Modelling & Software
Year 2022
Department OESA
Volume 156
Page From art. 105489
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Keywords Causation; Ecological models; Social-ecological systems; Context dependence; Model comparison
Abstract Models are widely used for investigating cause-effect relationships in complex systems. However, often different models yield diverging causal claims about specific phenomena. Therefore, critical reflection is needed on causal insights derived from modeling. As an example, we here compare ecological models dealing with the dynamics and collapse of cod in the Baltic Sea. The models addressed different specific questions, but also vary widely in system conceptualization and complexity. With each model, certain ecological factors and mechanisms were analyzed in detail, while others were included but remained unchanged, or were excluded. Model-based causal analyses of the same system are thus inherently constrained by diverse implicit assumptions about possible determinants of causation. In developing recommendations for human action, awareness is needed of this strong context dependence of causal claims, which is often not entirely clear. Model comparisons can be supplemented by integrating findings from multiple models and confronting models with multiple observed patterns.
Persistent UFZ Identifier https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=26513
Banitz, T., Schlüter, M., Lindkvist, E., Radosavljevic, S., Johansson, L.-G., Ylikoski, P., Martínez-Peña, R., Grimm, V. (2022):
Model-derived causal explanations are inherently constrained by hidden assumptions and context: The example of Baltic cod dynamics
Environ. Modell. Softw. 156 , art. 105489 10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105489