Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Journals |
| DOI | 10.1127/fal/2022/1457 |
| Title (Primary) | Linking theory with empirical data: Improving prediction through mechanistic understanding of lake ecosystem complexity under global change |
| Author | Adrian, R.; Gsell, A.S.; Shatwell, T.; Scharfenberger, U. |
| Source Titel | Fundamental and Applied Limnology |
| Year | 2023 |
| Department | ASAM; SEEFO; FLOEK |
| Volume | 196 |
| Issue | 3-4 |
| Page From | 179 |
| Page To | 194 |
| Language | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Keywords | Theory; experimental data; scaling; long-term monitoring; theory-data synergy |
| Abstract | In this study dedicated to Winfried Lampert, we present a suite of case studies which successfully combined empirical long-term and experimental data with theory to identify mechanisms driving the non-linear dynamics and critical transitions in a lake ecosystem under environmental change. The theoretical concepts used include Probability Theory, Regime Shift Theory, Intraguild Predation Theory, Metabolic Theory of Ecology, and Early Warning Indicators. Only by linking theory with data do we gain a mechanistic understanding of the dynamics and long-term changes observed in the case study sites – allowing for realistic projections under different climate change scenarios. If this combined approach correctly identifies the mechanisms governing change in case studies, then upscaling beyond the case study at hand is likely feasible. Indeed, for most of the presented case studies, identified mechanisms were confirmed by explicitly linking them to relevant recent studies based on large-scale global data sets. These include the rise in lake ice intermittency, shifts in thermal regime and the amplification of lake’s trophic state in a warmer world. This link also documents the importance and value of re-using long-term records under the FAIR data principles in international initiatives. Further, in the context of linking theory and data, large-scale data has the unique ability to test the general validity of a theory, thus giving valuable feedback to theory. |
| Persistent UFZ Identifier | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=26415 |
| Adrian, R., Gsell, A.S., Shatwell, T., Scharfenberger, U. (2023): Linking theory with empirical data: Improving prediction through mechanistic understanding of lake ecosystem complexity under global change Fundam. Appl. Limnol. 196 (3-4), 179 - 194 10.1127/fal/2022/1457 |
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