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Title (Primary) Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model
Author Guo, X.; Gao, Y.; Zhang, S.; Wu, L.; Chang, P.; Cai, W.; Zscheischler, J.; Leung, L.R.; Small, J.; Danabasoglu, G.; Thompson, L.; Gao, H.
Journal Nature Climate Change
Year 2022
Department CHS
Volume 12
Issue 2
Page From 179
Page To 186
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Data links https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3637771
Supplements https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41558-021-01266-5/MediaObjects/41558_2021_1266_MOESM1_ESM.pdf
Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs), episodic periods of abnormally high sea surface temperature, severely affect marine ecosystems. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover ~22% of the global ocean but account for 95% of global fisheries catches. Yet how climate change affects MHWs over LMEs remains unknown because such LMEs are confined to the coast where low-resolution climate models are known to have biases. Here, using a high-resolution Earth system model and applying a ‘future threshold’ that considers MHWs as anomalous warming above the long-term mean warming of sea surface temperatures, we find that future intensity and annual days of MHWs over the majority of the LMEs remain higher than in the present-day climate. Better resolution of ocean mesoscale eddies enables simulation of more realistic MHWs than low-resolution models. These increases in MHWs under global warming pose a serious threat to LMEs, even if resident organisms could adapt fully to the long-term mean warming.
Persistent UFZ Identifier https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=25782
Guo, X., Gao, Y., Zhang, S., Wu, L., Chang, P., Cai, W., Zscheischler, J., Leung, L.R., Small, J., Danabasoglu, G., Thompson, L., Gao, H. (2022):
Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model
Nat. Clim. Chang. 12 (2), 179 - 186