Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1038/s41558-021-01266-5
Licence creative commons licence
Title (Primary) Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model
Author Guo, X.; Gao, Y.; Zhang, S.; Wu, L.; Chang, P.; Cai, W.; Zscheischler, J. ORCID logo ; Leung, L.R.; Small, J.; Danabasoglu, G.; Thompson, L.; Gao, H.
Source Titel Nature Climate Change
Year 2022
Department CHS
Volume 12
Issue 2
Page From 179
Page To 186
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Data and Software links
Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs), episodic periods of abnormally high sea surface temperature, severely affect marine ecosystems. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover ~22% of the global ocean but account for 95% of global fisheries catches. Yet how climate change affects MHWs over LMEs remains unknown because such LMEs are confined to the coast where low-resolution climate models are known to have biases. Here, using a high-resolution Earth system model and applying a ‘future threshold’ that considers MHWs as anomalous warming above the long-term mean warming of sea surface temperatures, we find that future intensity and annual days of MHWs over the majority of the LMEs remain higher than in the present-day climate. Better resolution of ocean mesoscale eddies enables simulation of more realistic MHWs than low-resolution models. These increases in MHWs under global warming pose a serious threat to LMEs, even if resident organisms could adapt fully to the long-term mean warming.
Persistent UFZ Identifier
Guo, X., Gao, Y., Zhang, S., Wu, L., Chang, P., Cai, W., Zscheischler, J., Leung, L.R., Small, J., Danabasoglu, G., Thompson, L., Gao, H. (2022):
Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model
Nat. Clim. Chang. 12 (2), 179 - 186 10.1038/s41558-021-01266-5