Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.3389/fcosc.2021.814863
Licence creative commons licence
Title (Primary) The disconnect between short- and long-term population projections for plant reintroductions
Author Bialic-Murphy, L.; Knight, T.M.; Kawelo, K.; Gaoue, O.G.
Journal Frontiers in Conservation Science
Year 2022
Department BZF; iDiv
Volume 2
Page From art. 814863
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Keywords population reintroduction; Delissea waianaeensis; stage-structured matrix model; transient analysis; transient elasticity; stochastic population dynamics
Abstract The reintroduction of rare species in natural preserves is a commonly used restoration strategy to prevent species extinction. An essential first step in planning successful reintroductions is identifying which life stages (e.g., seeds or large adults) should be used to establish these new populations. Following this initial establishment phase, it is necessary to determine the level of survival, growth, and recruitment needed to maintain population persistence over time and identify management actions that will achieve these goals. In this 5-year study, we projected the short- and long-term population growth rates of a critically endangered long-lived shrub, Delissea waianaeensis. Using this model system, we show that reintroductions established with mature individuals have the lowest probability of quasi-population extinction (10 individuals) and the highest increase in population abundance. However, our results also demonstrate that short-term increases in population abundances are overly optimistic of long-term outcomes. Using long-term stochastic model simulations, we identified the level of natural seedling regeneration needed to maintain a positive population growth rate over time. These findings are relevant for planning future reintroduction efforts for long-lived species and illustrate the need to forecast short- and long-term population responses when evaluating restoration success.
Persistent UFZ Identifier
Bialic-Murphy, L., Knight, T.M., Kawelo, K., Gaoue, O.G. (2022):
The disconnect between short- and long-term population projections for plant reintroductions
Front. Conserv. Sci. 2 , art. 814863