Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Journals |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10584-021-03202-0 |
| Document | Shareable Link |
| Title (Primary) | Multi-model ensemble projections of soil moisture drought over North Africa and the Sahel region under 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming |
| Author | Elkouk, A.; El Morjani, Z.E.A.; Pokhrel, Y.; Chehbouni, A.; Sifeddine, A.; Thober, S.; Bouchaou, L. |
| Source Titel | Climatic Change |
| Year | 2021 |
| Department | CHS |
| Volume | 167 |
| Issue | 3-4 |
| Page From | art. 52 |
| Language | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Supplements | https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1007%2Fs10584-021-03202-0/MediaObjects/10584_2021_3202_MOESM1_ESM.docx |
| Keywords | Global warming; Soil moisture; Drought; North Africa; Sahel |
| Abstract | The intensification of soil moisture drought events is an expected consequence of anthropogenic global warming. However, the implication of 1.5–3 °C global warming on these events remains unknown over North Africa and the Sahel region, where soil moisture plays a crucial role in food security that largely depends on rainfed agriculture. Here, using a multi-model ensemble from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b, we estimate the changes in the spatiotemporal characteristics of soil moisture drought events under increased global mean temperature. A 3 °C global warming results in multi-year (up to 19 years) mega-drought events over North Africa compared to a maximum drought duration of 12 years under the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement target. These events are projected to transform from historically severe droughts into exceptional droughts and extend over an area that is 32% larger under 3 °C compared to that under 1.5 °C. Global warming also leads to a high intensification of Sahelian drought extremes, in particular, their duration (from 24 to 82 months between 1.5 and 3 °C) over the western parts and their severity everywhere. Even though the results highlight substantial uncertainties arising from climate forcing and impact models, the projections indicate a tendency toward unprecedented exacerbation of soil moisture droughts that could pose serious threats to food security of North African and Sahelian societies in the absence of effective mitigation and adaptation. |
| Persistent UFZ Identifier | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=25071 |
| Elkouk, A., El Morjani, Z.E.A., Pokhrel, Y., Chehbouni, A., Sifeddine, A., Thober, S., Bouchaou, L. (2021): Multi-model ensemble projections of soil moisture drought over North Africa and the Sahel region under 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming Clim. Change 167 (3-4), art. 52 10.1007/s10584-021-03202-0 |
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