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Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1002/ecy.3504
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Title (Primary) Temporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarity
Author Wilfahrt, P.A.; Asmus, A.L.; Seabloom, E.W.; Henning, J.A.; Adler, P.; Arnillas, C.A.; Bakker, J.D.; Biederman, L.; Brudvig, L.A.; Cadotte, M.; Daleo, P.; Eskelinen, A.; Firn, J.; Harpole, W.S. ORCID logo ; Hautier, Y.; Kirkman, K.P.; Komatsu, K.J.; Laungani, R.; MacDougall, A.; McCulley, R.L.; Moore, J.L.; Morgan, J.W.; Mortensen, B.; Ochoa Hueso, R.; Ohlert, T.; Power, S.A.; Price, J.; Risch, A.C.; Schuetz, M.; Shoemaker, L.; Stevens, C.; Strauss, A.T.; Tognetti, P.M.; Virtanen, R.; Borer, E.T.
Source Titel Ecology
Year 2021
Department iDiv; PHYDIV
Volume 102
Issue 11
Page From e03504
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Data and Software links
Keywords core-transient; extinction risk; grasslands; herbivores; NutNet; nutrients; rarity
Abstract Spatial rarity is often used to predict extinction risk, but rarity can also occur temporally. Perhaps more relevant in the context of global change is whether a species is core to a community (persistent) or transient (intermittently present), with transient species often susceptible to human activities that reduce niche space. Using 5-12 years of data on 1,447 plant species from 49 grasslands on 5 continents, we show that local abundance and species persistence under ambient conditions are both effective predictors of local extinction risk following experimental exclusion of grazers or addition of nutrients; persistence was a more powerful predictor than local abundance. While perturbations increased the risk of exclusion for low persistence and abundance species, transient but abundant species were also highly likely to be excluded from a perturbed plot relative to ambient conditions. Moreover, low persistence and low abundance species that were not excluded from perturbed plots tended to have a modest increase in abundance following perturbance. Lastly, even core species with high abundances had large decreases in persistence and increased losses in perturbed plots, threatening the long-term stability of these grasslands. Our results demonstrate that expanding the concept of rarity to include temporal dynamics, in addition to local abundance, more effectively predicts extinction risk in response to environmental change than either rarity axis predicts alone.
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Wilfahrt, P.A., Asmus, A.L., Seabloom, E.W., Henning, J.A., Adler, P., Arnillas, C.A., Bakker, J.D., Biederman, L., Brudvig, L.A., Cadotte, M., Daleo, P., Eskelinen, A., Firn, J., Harpole, W.S., Hautier, Y., Kirkman, K.P., Komatsu, K.J., Laungani, R., MacDougall, A., McCulley, R.L., Moore, J.L., Morgan, J.W., Mortensen, B., Ochoa Hueso, R., Ohlert, T., Power, S.A., Price, J., Risch, A.C., Schuetz, M., Shoemaker, L., Stevens, C., Strauss, A.T., Tognetti, P.M., Virtanen, R., Borer, E.T. (2021):
Temporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarity
Ecology 102 (11), e03504 10.1002/ecy.3504