Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113201
Document accepted manuscript
Title (Primary) A quantitative approach for the design of robust and cost-effective conservation policies under uncertain climate change: The case of grasshopper conservation in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany
Author Drechsler, M.; Gerling, C.; Keuler, K.; Leins, J.; Sturm, A.; Wätzold, F.
Source Titel Journal of Environmental Management
Year 2021
Department OESA
Volume 286
Page From art. 113201
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Keywords highlight; Biodiversity conservation; Climate-ecological-economic modelling; Ecological-economic modelling; Climate change; Robustness; Uncertainty; Large marsh grasshopper
Abstract Climate is a major determinant of the world's distribution of biodiversity and species ranges are expected to shift as the climate changes. For conservation policies to be cost-effective in the long run these changes need to be taken into account. To some extent, policies can be adapted over time, but transaction costs, lock-in effects and path dependence limit the extent to which such adaptation is possible. Thus it is desirable that conservation policies be designed so that they are cost-effective in the long run even without future adaptations. Given that the future climate change is highly uncertain, the policies need to be robust to climatic uncertainty. In this paper we present an approach for the robustness analysis with regard to the cost-effectiveness of conservation policies in the face of uncertain climate change. The approach is applied to the conservation of a grasshopper species in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein. For the assessment of the cost-effectiveness of considered policies we develop a climate-ecological-economic model. We show that in the near future all considered policies have a similar level of robustness, while in the more distant future the policies differ substantially in their robustness and a trade-off emerges between the expected performance and robustness of a policy.
Persistent UFZ Identifier https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=24817
Drechsler, M., Gerling, C., Keuler, K., Leins, J., Sturm, A., Wätzold, F. (2021):
A quantitative approach for the design of robust and cost-effective conservation policies under uncertain climate change: The case of grasshopper conservation in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany
J. Environ. Manage. 286 , art. 113201 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113201