Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1002/ecs2.3454
Licence creative commons licence
Title (Primary) Increasing temperature threatens an already endangered coastal dune plant
Author Compagnoni, A.; Pardini, E.; Knight, T.M.
Journal Ecosphere
Year 2021
Department BZF; iDiv
Volume 12
Issue 3
Page From e03454
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Keywords climate change; forecast; individual‐based model; integral projection model; life table response experiment; population dynamics
Abstract Climate change has the potential to reduce the abundance and distribution of species and threaten global biodiversity, but it is typically not listed as a threat in classifying species conservation status. This likely occurs because demonstrating climate change as a threat requires data‐intensive demographic information. Moreover, the threat from climate change is often studied in specific biomes, such as polar or arid ones. Other biomes, such as coastal ones, have received little attention, despite being currently exposed to substantial climate change effects. We forecast the effect of climate change on the demography and population size of a federally endangered coastal dune plant (Lupinus tidestromii). We use data from a 14‐yr demographic study across seven extant populations of this endangered plant. Using model selection, we found that survival and fertility measures responded negatively to temperature anomalies. We then produced forecasts based on stochastic individual‐based population models that account for uncertainty in demographic outcomes. Despite large uncertainties, we predict that all populations will decline if temperatures increase by 1°C. Considering the total number of individuals across all seven populations, the most likely outcome is a population decline of 90%. Moreover, we predict extinction is certain for one of our seven populations. These results demonstrate that climate change will profoundly decrease the current and future population growth rates of this plant, and its chance of persistence. Thus, our study provides the first evidence that climate change is an extinction threat for a plant species classified as endangered under the USA Endangered Species Act.
Persistent UFZ Identifier
Compagnoni, A., Pardini, E., Knight, T.M. (2021):
Increasing temperature threatens an already endangered coastal dune plant
Ecosphere 12 (3), e03454