Publication Details |
Category | Text Publication |
Reference Category | Journals |
DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146236 |
Licence | |
Title (Primary) | Compound and cascading drought impacts do not happen by chance: A proposal to quantify their relationships |
Author | de Brito, M.M. |
Source Titel | Science of the Total Environment |
Year | 2021 |
Department | SUSOZ |
Volume | 778 |
Page From | art. 146236 |
Language | englisch |
Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
Supplements | https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0048969721013048-mmc1.zip https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0048969721013048-mmc2.zip https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0048969721013048-mmc3.docx |
Keywords | Data mining; Network analysis; Co-occurring impacts; Cascading paths; Germany; Sequential pattern mining |
Abstract |
The understanding of compounding and
cascading impacts is becoming increasingly central to the risk reduction debate
as hazard consequences are strongly coupled. Still, studies on their
quantification and visualization are limited. This restricts the establishment
of impact-based early warning systems. Here, a novel method for quantifying
drought compound impacts and their cascading paths is presented by integrating
network analysis and data mining tools. The 2018/19 drought in Germany is used
as a case study. Network graphs are employed to display impact co-occurrences
and cascades of agriculture, livestock, forestry, industry, and recreation
impacts. Furthermore, sequential pattern mining is used to predict the next
impact that is likely to take place. A synthesis of the identified
relationships is presented using accessible visual formats. Results show that
simultaneous and cascading drought impacts may not happen by chance but follow
a pattern. Indeed, statistically significant co-occurrence associations outnumbered
randomly distributed ones (91.1% versus 8.9%). With regard to the cascading
paths, cross-validation results show that within three attempts, the next
impact class was accurately predicted in 72.9% of the cases. Crop losses were
usually followed up by a shortage of feed for livestock and consequent early
slaughtering of animals. This implies that in order to limit drought impacts,
there is a need to consider their compounding and cascading effects. Hence,
researchers need to move from the analysis of single impacts to the
understanding of how multi-sectoral impacts are connected with each other. The
methodology proposed here paves towards this direction. The visualization tools
used can help to increase awareness of the possible impact interactions and dependency,
improving drought managers' decision-making ability. Moreover, the obtained
results can serve as the basis for inferring impact causal relationships. |
Persistent UFZ Identifier | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=24373 |
de Brito, M.M. (2021): Compound and cascading drought impacts do not happen by chance: A proposal to quantify their relationships Sci. Total Environ. 778 , art. 146236 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146236 |