Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1029/2020EF001783
Licence creative commons licence
Title (Primary) Event‐based storylines to address climate risk
Author Sillmann, J.; Shepherd, T.G.; van den Hurk, B.; Hazeleger, W.; Martius, O.; Slingo, J.; Zscheischler, J. ORCID logo
Source Titel Earth's Future
Year 2021
Department CHS
Volume 9
Issue 2
Page From e2020EF001783
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Keywords storylines; climate change; risk; high‐impact events; decision‐making; low likelihood
Abstract The climate science community is challenged to adopt an actionable risk perspective, which is difficult to align with the traditional focus on model‐based probabilistic climate change projections. Event‐based storylines can provide a way out of this conundrum by putting emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using "stress‐testing" for emergency preparedness based on events that are conditional on specific and plausible assumptions. Event‐based storylines allow for conditional explanations, without full attribution of every causal factor, which is crucial when some aspects of the latter are complex and highly uncertain.
Persistent UFZ Identifier
Sillmann, J., Shepherd, T.G., van den Hurk, B., Hazeleger, W., Martius, O., Slingo, J., Zscheischler, J. (2021):
Event‐based storylines to address climate risk
Earth Future 9 (2), e2020EF001783 10.1029/2020EF001783