Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1029/2022JG007332
Licence creative commons licence
Title (Primary) Large variability in simulated response of vegetation composition and carbon dynamics to variations in drought-heat occurrence
Author Tschumi, E.; Lienert, S.; Bastos, A.; Ciais, P.; Gregor, K.; Joos, F.; Knauer, J.; Papastefanou, P.; Rammig, A.; van der Wiel, K.; Williams, K.; Xu, Y.; Zaehle, S.; Zscheischler, J. ORCID logo
Source Titel Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences
Year 2023
Department CHS
Volume 128
Issue 4
Page From e2022JG007332
Language englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Abstract The frequency of heatwaves, droughts and their co-occurrence vary greatly in simulations of different climate models. Since these extremes are expected to become more frequent with climate change, it is important to understand how vegetation models respond to different climatologies in heatwave and drought occurrence. In previous work, six climate scenarios featuring different drought-heat signatures have been developed to investigate how single vs. compound extremes affect vegetation and carbon dynamics. Here, we use these scenarios to force six dynamic global vegetation models to investigate model agreement in vegetation and carbon cycle response to these scenarios. We find that global responses to different drought-heat signatures vary considerably across models. Models agree that frequent compound drought-heatwave events lead to a reduction in tree cover and vegetation carbon stocks. However, models show opposite responses in vegetation changes for the scenario with no extremes. We find a strong relationship between the frequency of concurrent hot-dry conditions and the total carbon pool, suggesting a reduction of the natural land carbon sink for increasing occurrence of hot-dry events. The effect of frequent compound hot and dry extremes is larger than the sum of the effects when only one extreme occurs, highlighting the importance of studying compound events. Our results demonstrate that uncertainties in the representation of compound hot-dry event occurrence in climate models propagate to uncertainties in the simulation of vegetation distribution and carbon pools. Therefore, to reduce uncertainties in future carbon cycle projections, the representation of compound events in climate models needs to be improved.
Persistent UFZ Identifier
Tschumi, E., Lienert, S., Bastos, A., Ciais, P., Gregor, K., Joos, F., Knauer, J., Papastefanou, P., Rammig, A., van der Wiel, K., Williams, K., Xu, Y., Zaehle, S., Zscheischler, J. (2023):
Large variability in simulated response of vegetation composition and carbon dynamics to variations in drought-heat occurrence
J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeosci. 128 (4), e2022JG007332 10.1029/2022JG007332