Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1038/s41598-020-68872-9
Licence creative commons licence
Title (Primary) Increased future occurrences of the exceptional 2018–2019 Central European drought under global warming
Author Hari, V.; Rakovec, O. ORCID logo ; Markonis, Y.; Hanel, M.; Kumar, R. ORCID logo
Source Titel Scientific Reports
Year 2020
Department CHS
Volume 10
Page From art. 12207
Language englisch
Supplements https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41598-020-68872-9/MediaObjects/41598_2020_68872_MOESM1_ESM.pdf
Keywords Climate sciences; Hydrology
Abstract

Since the spring 2018, a large part of Europe has been in the midst of a record-setting drought. Using long-term observations, we demonstrate that the occurrence of the 2018–2019 (consecutive) summer drought is unprecedented in the last 250 years, and its combined impact on the growing season vegetation activities is stronger compared to the 2003 European drought. Using a suite of climate model simulation outputs, we underpin the role of anthropogenic warming on exacerbating the future risk of such a consecutive drought event. Under the highest Representative Concentration Pathway, (RCP 8.5), we notice a seven-fold increase in the occurrence of the consecutive droughts, with additional 40 (±5) million ha of cultivated areas being affected by such droughts, during the second half of the twenty-first century. The occurrence is significantly reduced under low and medium scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), suggesting that an effective mitigation strategy could aid in reducing the risk of future consecutive droughts.

Persistent UFZ Identifier https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=23500
Hari, V., Rakovec, O., Markonis, Y., Hanel, M., Kumar, R. (2020):
Increased future occurrences of the exceptional 2018–2019 Central European drought under global warming
Sci. Rep. 10 , art. 12207 10.1038/s41598-020-68872-9