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Title (Primary) Assessing the response of groundwater quantity and travel time distribution to 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming in a mesoscale central German basin
Author Jing, M.; Kumar, R.; Heße, F.; Thober, S.; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L.; Attinger, S.;
Journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Year 2020
Department CHS;
Volume 24
Issue 3
Language englisch;
POF III (all) T53;
Data links https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1248005
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1299584
https://www.opengeosys.org/ogs-5
Abstract Groundwater is the biggest single source of high-quality fresh water worldwide, which is also continuously threatened by the changing climate. This paper is designed to investigate the response of regional groundwater system to the climate change under three global warming levels (1.5, 2, and 3°C) in a central German basin (Nägelstedt). This investigation is conducted by deploying an integrated modeling workflow that consists of a mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) and a fully-distributed groundwater model OpenGeoSys (OGS). mHM is forced by five general circulation models under three representative concentration pathways. The diffuse recharges estimated by mHM are used as outer forcings of the OGS groundwater model to compute changes in groundwater levels and travel time distributions. Simulation results indicate that under future climate scenarios, groundwater recharges and levels are expected to increase slightly. Meanwhile, the mean travel time is expected to decrease compared to the historical average. However, the ensemble simulations do not all agree on the sign of relative change. The ensemble simulations do not show a systematic relationship between the predicted change and the warming level, but they indicate an increased variability in predicted changes with the enhanced warming level from 1.5 to 3°C. This study indicates that a higher warming level may introduce more uncertain and extreme events for the studied regional groundwater system.
ID 21332
Persistent UFZ Identifier https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=21332
Jing, M., Kumar, R., Heße, F., Thober, S., Rakovec, O., Samaniego, L., Attinger, S. (2020):
Assessing the response of groundwater quantity and travel time distribution to 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming in a mesoscale central German basin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 24 (3), 1511 - 1526