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Title (Primary) Development and evaluation of a Pan-European multimodel seasonal hydrological forecasting system
Author Wanders, N.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Pan, M.; Sheffield, J.; Samaniego, L.; Wood, E.F.;
Journal Journal of Hydrometeorology
Year 2019
Department CHS;
Volume 20
Issue 1
Language englisch;
POF III (all) T53;
Abstract Hydrological forecasts with a high temporal and spatial resolution are required to provide the level of information needed by end-users. So far highresolution multi-model seasonal hydrological forecasts have been unavailable due to 1) lack of availability of high-resolution meteorological seasonal forecasts, requiring temporal and spatial downscaling, 2) a mismatch between the provided seasonal forecast information and the user needs, and 3) lack of consistency between the hydrological model outputs to generate multi-model seasonal hydrological forecasts. As part of the EDgE (End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision making in the water sector in Europe) project commissioned by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (ECMWF), this study provides a unique dataset of seasonal hydrological forecasts derived from four General Circulation Models (CanCM4, FLOR-B01, ECMWF-S4, LFPW) in combination with four Hydrological Models (mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB, and VIC). The forecasts are provided at daily resolution, 6 months lead time, and 5 km spatial resolution over the historical period from 1993 to 2012. Consistency in hydrological model parameterization ensures an increased consistency in the hydrological forecasts. Results show that skillful discharge forecasts can be made throughout Europe up to 3 months in advance, with predictability up to 6 months for Northern Europe resulting from the improved predictability of the spring snow melt. The new system provides an unprecedented ensemble of seasonal hydrological forecasts with significant skill over Europe to support water management. This study highlights the potential advantages of multi-model based forecasting system in providing skillful hydrological forecasts.
ID 21098
Persistent UFZ Identifier
Wanders, N., Thober, S., Kumar, R., Pan, M., Sheffield, J., Samaniego, L., Wood, E.F. (2019):
Development and evaluation of a Pan-European multimodel seasonal hydrological forecasting system
J. Hydrometeorol. 20 (1), 99 - 115